Oil Prices Mark First Monthly Decline in Three Months; US-Ukraine Dispute Draws Market Focus
Last Friday (March 1), international oil prices fell, with Brent crude futures settling at $73.18 per barrel, down 1.16%; US crude futures closed at $69.76 per barrel, down 0.84%. This marks the first monthly decline in oil prices since November last year. The market is closely monitoring the intense dispute between US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky at the White House, as well as the progress of Iraq resuming oil exports from the Kurdistan region.
The debate between the US and Ukrainian leaders centered on the ceasefire issue in the Russia-Ukraine war. During the talks, Trump threatened to withdraw support for Ukraine, while Zelensky left the White House early after failing to reach a US-Ukraine joint mineral resources development agreement. This conflict has led the market to reassess the impact of the Russia-Ukraine situation on global energy supply. John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC stated, “This dispute could be advantageous for Russia, giving it more opportunities to supply crude oil to the market.”
Amidst heightened US-Ukraine tensions, the market is also eyeing the US's plans to impose new tariffs on imports. This policy could affect global economic growth, thereby impacting crude oil demand.
Iraq Announces Resumption of Kurdistan Oil Exports, But Faces Challenges
Last Friday, the Iraqi Oil Ministry announced the resumption of oil exports from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline. The initial export volume is expected to be 185,000 barrels per day, with plans to gradually increase it. However, eight international oil companies operating in the Kurdistan region have stated that they have not yet reached an agreement on commercial terms and payment guarantees, thus the export will not resume immediately.
The implementation of this export resumption plan still faces many challenges. Market observers are concerned that if commercial contracts are not concluded, oil exports from the Kurdistan region might still be delayed.
OPEC+ Discusses April Output Policy, Uncertainty Persists in Supply Situation
Meanwhile, OPEC+ member countries are assessing the global supply situation and discussing whether to proceed with an April production increase as scheduled. Eight OPEC+ insiders revealed that the current market environment is uncertain, with member countries weighing the balance between global demand recovery and increased supply.
Although the global economic outlook remains unclear, the policy decisions of OPEC+ will play a key role in determining future oil price trends. If the organization decides to defer the production increase, oil prices may find support; conversely, sticking to the production increase might subject the market to supply pressure, further depressing oil prices.
Market Volatility Intensifies, Oil Price Outlook Remains Uncertain
Against the backdrop of the US-Ukraine leadership dispute, Iraq's oil export resumption, and unclear OPEC+ production decisions, international oil prices are under pressure and have recorded their first monthly decline in three months. In the short term, the market will continue to focus on the further development of US-Ukraine relations, the successful resumption of Iraq's oil exports, and the production adjustment decisions of OPEC+. Moving forward, global economic trends and geopolitical risks will continue to dominate oil price fluctuations, requiring investors to remain vigilant.
