On March 20, 2025, the US stock market experienced a slight decline on Thursday, with fluctuations throughout the day. Investors continued to evaluate the latest economic data and Fed policy statements amid the backdrop of trade tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. In recent weeks, with reciprocal trade tariffs in place, various economic indicators suggest that the US economy and consumer confidence may have cooled, putting significant selling pressure on the stock market.
Nevertheless, in the past four trading days, the stock market has risen three times, with the S&P 500 index climbing more than 1% on Wednesday. The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates steady and indicated it might lower rates twice later this year, by 25 basis points each time. Furthermore, the Fed also projected that economic growth would slow while inflation might rise in the short term.
Stephen Massocca, Wedbush Securities' Senior Vice President, stated that the current situation is "very unstable" and noted that the market is highly attuned to potential news events in the coming weeks. "We may be bottoming out, but considering recent news, I don't think we will quickly move out of this situation," he said.
The latest economic data has also heightened market unease. The US Department of Labor reported a rise in initial jobless claims last week, and factors such as government spending cuts, interest rate levels, and policy uncertainty may darken the outlook. Meanwhile, the Conference Board's report shows that indicators measuring future economic activity declined by 0.2% in January and fell again by 0.3% in February.
According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), the market anticipates the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 63 basis points this year, with a 71% chance of a 25 basis point cut at the June meeting.
In terms of industry performance, technology stocks were the weakest among the 11 major sectors, becoming the biggest drag, while energy stocks rose nearly 2% thanks to the increase in crude oil prices. This gain was primarily driven by new US sanctions on Iran.
Despite the uncertain tariff outlook and the dimming profit forecasts for many companies, the stock price of Darden Restaurants rose by 5.77%. The company, which owns the Olive Garden restaurant chain, provided an optimistic outlook on the impact of tariffs on its business in its report.
