On April 9, 2025, U.S. President Trump announced a 90-day suspension of new tariffs on most economies but sharply increased tariffs on major Asian nations to 125%, which caught the market by surprise. Following the announcement, oil prices initially plummeted nearly 7% but quickly rebounded. Brent crude futures rose by $2.66, settling at $65.48 per barrel; WTI crude futures increased by $2.77, closing at $62.35 per barrel. Although the day's rebound marked the largest single-day rise of the year, it did not sustain, and in the short term, oil prices are still facing correction risks in a sentiment-driven market.
Analysts believe that Trump's tariff adjustment could signify a turning point in trade conflicts. "Trump has given countries hoping to negotiate for tariff removal some time." However, the major Asian nation announced an 84% tariff on U.S. goods starting April 9, initiating retaliatory measures. Meanwhile, Canada and the EU also imposed retaliatory tariffs on the U.S., with the EU's initial tariffs affecting several key industries, including automotive, agriculture, and energy, at a 25% rate.
Concerns over further contraction of the global consumption and logistics systems have intensified, especially impacting crude oil demand. Market surveys indicate that if multilateral trade relations continue to deteriorate, crude oil demand could enter a "de-globalization contraction" phase. OPEC+'s decision to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day from May to alleviate some member countries' financial pressures failed to lift the market's pessimistic sentiment about short-term oil price increases.
Meanwhile, data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that as of last week, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 2.6 million barrels to 442.3 million barrels, surpassing the market's expected increase of 1.4 million barrels. This inventory data further heightened the market's cautious sentiment regarding the rise in oil prices.
Despite the current rebound in oil prices being mainly driven by news, the supply-demand side still fails to provide sufficient support. If global trade uncertainties persist, oil prices might once again test low support levels. The market will continue to monitor whether Trump will further adjust tariffs on other countries, whether OPEC will cut back on the production increase plan, and the impact of the U.S.'s May summer gasoline consumption season on oil prices.
