U.S. stock index futures collectively rose in early trading on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq 100 E-mini contract (NQ1!) leading with a 0.76% gain. This was mainly driven by a rebound in core chip stocks like Marvell Technology (MRVL:US) and Broadcom (AVGO:US) in pre-market trading, alleviating the pressure from last week's collective pullback due to concerns over industry valuations.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have eased temporarily, with Iran and Israel agreeing to resume a ceasefire and halt mutual attacks under external mediation. This led to a significant drop in international crude oil prices by over 2%. However, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining blocked, the overall sentiment in the commodities market remains cautious.
The primary market for tech stocks is experiencing a historic fundraising surge. Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SpaceX) plans to conduct an initial public offering valued at $750 billion with a market value of $1.75 trillion. Meanwhile, OpenAI has secretly submitted its listing application, sparking market concerns about liquidity in the secondary market due to the massive financing needs.
Chip Sector Sees Valuation Recovery and Technical Rebound
After a valuation pullback in the tech sector last week, the U.S. chip manufacturing industry showed strong resilience in early trading on Tuesday. Core companies like Marvell Technology, Broadcom, and Micron Technology (MU:US) saw significant pre-market gains, effectively recovering some of last Friday's losses. Previously, Broadcom's future performance guidance failed to meet market expectations, raising concerns among investors about the short-term overvaluation of AI-related stocks. However, several buy-side analysts pointed out that the long-term underlying logic supporting this technical bull market, including corporate earnings growth, continued AI capital expenditure expansion, and structural resilience in the macroeconomy, remains robust. After a short-term sharp adjustment, market funds are showing a willingness to reabsorb quality targets at key technical levels.
Cooling Geopolitical Premium and Inflation Data Outlook
Marginal improvements in the geopolitical dimension have provided a breather for risk assets. Iran and Israel have stated that they have stopped direct military actions against each other, returning to a ceasefire track. This news directly led to a decline in international crude oil market prices, with crude oil futures falling by more than 2%, giving back most of the previous day's gains. However, as the core contradictions in Middle Eastern diplomacy have not yet reached a long-term institutionalized agreement, and the global energy transport hub, the Strait of Hormuz, remains restricted, commodity traders remain highly vigilant. The market's focus has now shifted to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May, set to be released this Wednesday, as investors try to assess the transmission effects of the previous energy price rebound on overall and core inflation.
Monetary Policy Expectations and Liquidity Drain Risks
Stronger-than-expected non-farm employment data recently has prompted a reassessment of market pricing for monetary policy direction. The continued tightness in the labor market has heightened concerns about the Federal Reserve (Fed) potentially adopting a more hawkish stance within the year. Macro analysts point out that after the Nasdaq index achieved significant gains over the past two months, investors' sensitivity to inflation and interest rates is at a high level. Meanwhile, SpaceX plans to officially enter the capital market this Friday, with an expected fundraising scale of $750 billion, which may have a noticeable substitution effect on existing tech growth stocks' stock funds. At the same time, OpenAI has also secretly submitted its listing application, and these super unicorns being pushed to the market at high valuations have sparked discussions among some risk management institutions about the pressure on secondary market liquidity.
Corporate Mergers and Resonance in Computing Infrastructure Demand
Despite numerous variables in the macro environment, capital operations and merger activities at the micro-enterprise level remain active. The stock price of cancer drug development company Nuvalent (NUVL:US) surged significantly in pre-market trading, mainly due to pharmaceutical giant GlaxoSmithKline (GSK:US) announcing a full acquisition for a total consideration of $10.6 billion, with a significant premium over the previous trading day's closing price. In the digital infrastructure sector, Applied Digital Corporation (APLD:US) also recorded a notable pre-market gain of 11.5%. The company revealed it has reached a 15-year long-term asset leasing agreement with a hyperscale cloud service provider, expected to generate approximately $5.2 billion in operating revenue over its full lifecycle. This confirms that even amid increased volatility in the secondary market, the substantial demand for AI underlying infrastructure globally remains highly certain.
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