According to U.S. officials, President Trump will sign a new directive this Tuesday to restart the "maximum pressure" policy against Iran, aiming to reduce Iran's oil exports to zero. This move is intended to increase economic pressure on Iran, prevent the country from acquiring nuclear weapons, and strengthen sanctions from the previous administration. Following the announcement, global oil prices rose slightly.
The directive instructs Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant to use existing sanctions and enhance enforcement to more effectively curb Iran's oil exports. This action signals Trump's return to a tough stance on Iran, similar to his first term, during which he withdrew the U.S. from the nuclear agreement with Iran and sought to constrain the country's development through economic isolation.
During his campaign, Trump criticized the Biden administration for failing to strictly enforce oil export sanctions, which led to Iran's oil exports nearly reaching full capacity, gaining substantial foreign exchange. According to estimates by the U.S. Energy Information Agency, Iran's oil export revenue in 2023 was $53 billion, expected to rise to $54 billion in 2024. Additionally, OPEC data shows Iran's oil production in 2024 reached its highest level since 2018.
Sanctions evasions have led to an increase of about 1 million barrels per day in Iran's oil exports over the past four years. The Trump administration's move aims to further weaken Iran's fiscal health by cutting off its oil revenue. Currently, Iran faces a series of economic problems, including power shortages, currency depreciation, and industrial difficulties, which may be exacerbated by reduced oil revenue.
Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will meet with Trump on Tuesday afternoon to discuss the relationship in the coming years, with Iran expected to be a key focus of the talks. The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations will also collaborate with key allies to push for the speedy reinstatement of international sanctions against Iran.
The UK, France, and Germany have stated that they are ready to initiate the "snapback" process and reimpose all UN international sanctions on Iran if necessary, to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Trump previously stated that he is open to negotiations with Iran as long as it does not pursue nuclear weapons, but the current policy changes indicate a shift in his stance on Iran.
