On Gold:
Overnight, gold settled down after reaching new historical highs, with upward momentum weakening. Short-term profit-taking signs are evident, creating some pressure on gold prices. Investors should be cautious of the potential for gold to decline amidst prevailing enthusiasm.
In the early hours, the Federal Reserve released the Beige Book, which records the economic conditions and anecdotes of the 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks. The Beige Book indicated that U.S. employment had "slightly increased," and job openings have started to decline, signaling a cooling job market.
Among the 12 regional Feds, economic activities in 5 districts were either stable or declining, an increase of 3 regions since the previous report. Businesses generally anticipate an economic slowdown in the second half of the year. Several Federal Reserve officials have hinted that a rate cut is becoming more likely, and investors should be wary of optimistic sentiment potentially turning negative.
Technical Analysis: Gold's daily chart shows a high-level shooting star pattern, indicating the price is severely overbought and a correction might occur at any time. There are signs of a possible bull trap in the 1-hour chart, with a short-term double top breakout posing significant downward pressure. The key resistance to watch for the day is around the $2,470 mark.
On Crude Oil:
Overnight, crude oil rebounded sharply, suggesting that the daily correction might have concluded, potentially commencing a mid-term uptrend. Currently, oil is in its seasonal peak demand period with no substantial bearish news, making mid-term oil prices optimistic.
U.S. EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending July 12 saw a significant decline of 4.87 million barrels, compared to an expected decrease of 33,000 barrels and a previous decline of 3.443 million barrels. The decrease in crude inventories has expanded over three consecutive weeks. The refinery utilization rate is also high at 93.7%, operating at near full capacity.
Summer is the peak travel season, with strong gasoline demand typically driving up oil prices. Current U.S. travel figures have surpassed pre-pandemic levels, and this robust demand is a primary factor in the recent continuous rise in international oil prices. Some investment banks predict that seasonal demand might push oil prices up to $90 per barrel.
Technical Analysis: Crude oil's daily chart shows a large bullish candle, with prices above the long-term moving average, indicating the mid-term correction is complete. The 4-hour chart’s downtrend structure has concluded, with prices entering a previous high-volume area, likely continuing the short-term uptrend. The key support to watch for the day is around the $82.30 mark.
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