- The Taiwan Weighted Index (TWSE: TAIEX) showed a reduced volume adjustment today, closing down 606.52 points or 1.33% to 45,070.94 points. During the session, it was impacted by the negative factor of Broadcom's (AVGO: US) earnings report not meeting expectations, causing the index to retreat significantly by 1,467.93 points. However, bargain hunting quickly intervened, successfully recovering half of the lost ground.
- The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX: US) has shown significant gains this year, recently facing valuation correction pressure. Due to the high proportion of the technology industry chain in Taiwan's stock market, there was a noticeable decline at the opening today. However, after the index adjusted to 44,209 points, financial heavyweights and mature process semiconductor foundries strengthened against the trend, significantly alleviating the overall market selling pressure.
- Today's preliminary total market turnover narrowed to 1.29 trillion New Taiwan dollars, indicating that although the market encountered negative disturbances at high levels, there was no panic-induced large-scale capital withdrawal. Bullish funds showed strong defensive intentions near the key technical level of the 10-day moving average. Industry analysts pointed out that the medium-term upward trend of the market has not been disrupted, and it is expected to enter a high-level consolidation period in the short term.
H3: External Chip Leaders' Performance Below Expectations Triggers Semiconductor Sector Valuation Correction
Dragged down by Broadcom's earnings report not meeting expectations overnight, its stock price plummeted by 12.6% in the US stock market, casting a shadow over the optimistic sentiment that has driven chip stocks higher this year. Due to the high concentration of technology heavyweights in Taiwan's stock market, it opened lower and fluctuated today, with intraday declines expanding to over 3%. Additionally, impacted by some analysts' views that the memory industry will peak this year, both Japanese and Korean stock markets fell today, indicating that external market demand expectations have resonated in the short term, putting collective pressure on the semiconductor industry chain.
H3: Moving Average Support Shows Resilience, Bargain Hunting Funds Actively Engaged
Despite a significant intraday retreat of over 1,400 points, the Taiwan Weighted Index quickly attracted medium to long-term funds for allocation after adjusting to a low point. Huang Guowei, Deputy General Manager of Mega International Investment Consulting, pointed out that although there was a steep correction at the close, the shrinking trading volume indicates that the overall market selling pressure is not heavy, and the index ultimately held above the key technical level of the 10-day moving average at 44,789 points. This shows that the technical bullish structure has not been systematically damaged, and the bullish defense remains strong. If the index continues to stabilize above the moving average, the market will receive strong support at the 44,000-point threshold.
H3: Defensive Funds Flow Shows Financial and Mature Process Sectors Rising Against the Trend
Amid high-level fluctuations in the technology sector and chip adjustments facing lock-in, the rotation of defensive funds became the main feature of today's market. Financial stocks performed well, with Fubon Financial (2881: TT) and Cathay Financial (2882: TT) achieving gains of 3.51% and 5.93% respectively, becoming important anchors stabilizing the market. Meanwhile, mature process foundry giant UMC (2303: TT) and passive component leader Yageo (2327: TT) also closed higher against the trend, indicating that funds are shifting from high-gain frontier AI concept stocks to targets with defensive valuation attributes.
H3: High-Level Negative Triggers Profit-Taking, Short-Term Consolidation Pattern May Continue
Su Jianwen, an analyst at Hua Nan Investment Consulting, stated that since Taiwan's stock market has accumulated significant gains in the previous period, asset prices at high levels will trigger short-term profit-taking upon encountering slight fundamental negatives. Today's close holding the moving average indicates that the bullish confidence remains, but post-gain fluctuations and consolidation are inevitable, and the market may maintain a consolidation pattern until before the Dragon Boat Festival. Analysts generally estimate that the expected core trading range of the Taiwan Weighted Index next week will be between 44,200 points and 45,500 points. If there is no trend reversal in core industry chain demand, the market still has room for consolidation and momentum after the fluctuations.
