Gold Price Trends May Show a Distinct "Peak Then Stabilize" Pattern
The latest research by ANZ Bank suggests that the future year's gold market will exhibit clear phased characteristics. The analysis shows that the momentum for gold price increases will be mainly concentrated in the first half of the year. Subsequently, changes in the market environment will lead precious metals to gradually enter an adjustment phase rather than a continuous upward trend.
According to the bank, gold has evolved from being a simple safe-haven asset to a comprehensive asset that reflects monetary policy, geopolitical risks, and asset allocation needs. Its price rhythm now shows more cyclical characteristics.
Investment Funds and Central Bank Demand Form Upward Momentum
ANZ Bank points out that the core forces supporting the continued rise in gold prices still stem from the allocation demand of investment funds and the ongoing gold reserve expansions by national central banks. In the current global macro environment, the position of gold in foreign exchange reserves and asset portfolios is steadily rising, making its demand structure more robust.
With interest rates still relatively high and the global geopolitical situation not fully eased, gold remains seen as an important tool for hedging against systemic risks, which provides a solid foundation for first-half price performance.
End of Easing Cycle Alters Market Expectations
However, ANZ Bank also emphasizes that the macro environment gold faces in the second half will undergo critical changes. As the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy gradually approaches the end of the easing cycle, market expectations for future interest rate paths will tend to converge, potentially weakening the liquidity-driven factors that gold depends on.
Moreover, if the uncertainty around U.S. trade policy becomes clearer, combined with stabilized global economic growth expectations, market risk preferences may rise, thereby weakening gold's safe-haven attraction.
Decline Is Not a Trend Reversal But a Rhythm Adjustment
Notably, ANZ Bank does not view the decline in the second half as a trend reversal for gold prices. The report suggests that it is more like a rhythm correction after high-level operations rather than a deep downturn caused by fundamental deterioration.
In the scenario envisioned by the bank, gold prices will retreat in a relatively moderate manner, finding a new balance on a higher platform, laying the foundation for subsequent medium to long-term trends.
Silver's Fundamentals Show Greater Resilience
Compared to gold, ANZ Bank holds a significantly more optimistic view on silver. The report points out that silver possesses dual attributes as both a precious metal and an industrial metal, giving it a more complex yet more solid support structure in the current environment.
Persistent tight supply, growing demand in industrial fields for new energy and electronic products, and the participation of investment funds collectively form the support factors for silver prices.
Policy Factors May Alleviate Supply Tightness
The report also mentions that as a net importer of silver, U.S. import policies have significant impacts on the global market. If policy measures in the future allow more exemption space for silver, it could trigger a redistribution of regional inventories, alleviating localized supply tightness.
This change does not necessarily suppress silver prices but may improve market structure, making price fluctuations more rational and sustainable.
The Logic of Precious Metals Allocation Is Evolving
Overall, ANZ Bank believes that the precious metals market is shifting from a single safe-haven logic to a more complex macro and industry-driven model. Gold still has the potential to rise in the short term, but its medium-term trend will be more dependent on changes in policy and economic fundamentals, while silver may exhibit greater resilience due to structural demand.
In this context, investors need to transition from “one-way bets” to more attention on rhythm and structural dynamic management in their precious metals allocation strategy.
