The changes in the transportation patterns of the Strait of Hormuz are causing profound impacts on the global energy market. Unlike a traditional comprehensive blockade, this wave of shock is marked by distinct features of "selective flow".
Data shows that Iran has successfully maintained its exports while exports from other oil-producing countries have almost halted, resulting in a dramatic contraction in global supply. Transportation volumes have decreased by nearly 98% compared to pre-conflict levels, creating a supply disruption rarely seen in the modern energy market.
Geopolitics transforms into "control of flow"
The current situation indicates that energy geopolitics is shifting from "resource control" to "transportation control". By exerting influence over key passageways, Iran can regulate global supply without fully interrupting the market.
This model increases the complexity of geopolitical risks and makes oil price fluctuations more unpredictable.
Alternative routes cannot fully offset the impact
Although regional countries are rapidly adjusting their export routes, including:
- Saudi Arabia redirecting to Red Sea ports
- The UAE turning to Fujairah
- Iraq restoring northern pipelines
These routes still lack the total capacity to fill the daily transportation gap of millions of barrels. According to Goldman Sachs, the current shortfall remains at approximately 14.9 million barrels per day.
Global market enters a high-risk pricing phase
The sharp supply drop is rapidly transmitting to prices and the macroeconomic level. Oil prices remain high, inflation expectations are rising, and global growth is under pressure.
Analysts point out that if the conflict persists, the market may experience demand destruction, where high oil prices suppress consumption and industrial activity.
In this context, energy security and passageway control have become core issues in global policy games.
