- The potential peace agreement between the US and Iran is driving a reshaping of the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East. The reconciliation policy promoted by the US White House is causing marginal changes in US-Israel relations, putting pressure on the long-standing close ties between the two countries to undergo substantial reassessment.
- The latest public opinion poll in Israel shows a significant decline in support for the current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with as many as 61% of respondents clearly opposing his re-election. The ruling coalition faces a governance crisis, unable to reach the threshold needed to form a government in the anticipated elections.
- Geopolitical security uncertainties, disagreements over multilateral military actions, and dual pressures from domestic opposition and far-right forces, along with Netanyahu's personal health management and legal proceedings, are collectively elevating the complex downward risks in Israel's political situation.
US-Iran Agreement Triggers Marginal Restructuring of Alliances
The US White House has recently been actively promoting a potential peace agreement with Iran, aiming to maintain the current regime in Iran and ensure it does not acquire nuclear weapons. This policy direction significantly deviates from Israel's long-term Middle East security strategy, leading to strong bipartisan opposition in Israeli politics. Previously, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu deeply tied his political future to a close cooperative relationship with US President Donald Trump. However, as the US shifts its diplomatic focus towards regional reconciliation, this bilateral bond is gradually transforming from a strategic asset into a political burden for Netanyahu. If a definitive agreement between the US and Iran is eventually signed, the valuation logic and premium space of geopolitical assets in the Middle East may face a comprehensive restructuring.
Lebanon Dispute Intensifies High-Level Decision-Making Differences
The US and Israeli leaderships have shown clear tactical differences in handling the issue of Hezbollah in Lebanon, which is supported by Iran. Trump expressed dissatisfaction with Netanyahu's refusal to halt military actions within Lebanon and directly questioned Netanyahu's strategic judgment in bilateral talks. In media interviews, Trump publicly described Netanyahu as a very difficult negotiator and emphasized that Israel should maintain a sense of gratitude for US strategic support. US officials pointed out that if Iran possesses nuclear deterrence capabilities, Israel's strategic survival space would be severely compressed in a very short time. The White House reiterated that the new agreement is a systemic plan to ensure long-term regional security, but this statement failed to alleviate the core security concerns of the Israeli decision-makers.
Coalition Government Polls Under Pressure, Touching Governance Red Line
On the domestic front, Netanyahu is facing the most severe wave of public opinion since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. Due to the failure to effectively prevent the collapse of the initial security line and the inability of military actions against Iran and its proxies to achieve long-term strategic goals, the current government's trust level has significantly declined. The latest authoritative polls show that as many as 61% of Israeli voters clearly oppose the 76-year-old Netanyahu seeking re-election. Predictions for the parliamentary elections expected in October 2026 indicate that the current ruling coalition is projected to win only 51 out of 120 seats, far below the legal threshold of 61 seats needed to form a government, suggesting a high probability of regime change.
Opposition and Far-Right Cabinet Pressure from Both Sides
Netanyahu is facing attacks from both traditional opposition parties and far-right political allies within and outside the cabinet. Opposition leader Yair Lapid publicly criticized the current Prime Minister for serious misjudgments in the macro-geopolitical situation, failing to foresee the far-reaching impact of the Middle East conflict on the surge in international oil prices and its profound impact on US electoral politics, thereby depleting US strategic trust and placing Israel in a relatively passive dependent position in bilateral relations. Meanwhile, far-right representatives in the cabinet, such as National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, openly protested against US pressure, reiterating that Israel is not a vassal state of the US and will not accept any compromise agreement that could harm its absolute security. This dual tearing political structure further limits Netanyahu's decision-making flexibility.
Complex Risk Resonance Tests Political Trajectory
In addition to the downward pressures of geopolitical and electoral politics, Netanyahu must also manage multiple personal health challenges while maintaining high-intensity political operations. He is currently undergoing systematic treatment for prostate cancer and cardiovascular-related diseases. Meanwhile, the trial of his personal corruption cases continues to proceed weekly, with legal uncertainties continuously eroding the legitimacy of the current government. Although Netanyahu publicly insists on continuing to defend Israel's core security interests and firmly participating in the elections, under the external shadow of the US-Iran agreement, the strong rise of domestic competitor Gadi Eisenkot, and the resonance of multiple internal crises, this longest-serving Israeli political figure is facing the most uncertain strategic turning point in his political career.
