On November 6th (Wednesday), as the U.S. presidential election entered its final sprint, the price of Bitcoin surged above $73,000, a rise of 7.6%, reaching a new high since October 29th. The market's expectation of Trump's re-election increased, prompting investors to flock to the crypto market. Trump has reportedly promised that if he returns to the White House, he will advance the U.S. to become the "global cryptocurrency capital," with plans to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve and appoint regulators supportive of digital assets to exhibit his friendly stance towards the crypto industry.
As of now, polling stations in more than 20 U.S. states have opened, including key swing states such as North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Market analysis suggests the election results will have a profound impact on cryptocurrency policy, particularly in terms of foreign policy and financial regulation. Should Trump successfully win re-election, it could usher in a more lenient policy environment for Bitcoin and other crypto assets, further spurring market growth.
Meanwhile, the CME's Bitcoin options pricing indicates an upward climb in the 30-day implied volatility of Bitcoin, reaching its highest level since August, the month marked by a market slump triggered by "Black Monday." Options market data shows that Bitcoin prices are expected to fluctuate by up to 8% the day after voting concludes, which is four times the normal level. This expected volatility is making investor sentiment more active, prompting increased bets.
Moreover, Bitcoin's historical cyclical performance has also bolstered market optimism. Data shows the average gains for the past October, November, and December are 26%, 36%, and 11%, respectively, with the year's end typically being a strong growth period for Bitcoin. These historical figures provide optimistic expectations for the market, with some analysts even predicting that if demand remains robust, Bitcoin could surpass the significant psychological level of $100,000 in 2024.
Aside from Bitcoin, other crypto assets and commodity markets have also shown an upward trend. The dollar index has risen slightly, U.S. stock futures have strengthened early on, and gold prices have been supported amid the crypto frenzy. As the election results become clearer, the market expects more capital to flow into safe-haven and high-yield assets, with the post-election market trajectory becoming a focal point for global investors.
