Recently, the "egg shortage" in the United States has garnered widespread attention, with egg prices hitting historic highs and shortages in some areas intensifying market pressure. Wholesale prices of large eggs in the Midwest have reached $5.57 for a dozen (approximately 41 RMB), a 150% increase compared to the same period last year. In California, prices have soared to $8.85 per dozen (approximately 64 RMB), setting a new record, while prices in New York have surpassed $6 per dozen.
Avian Influenza as the Main Cause of Price Surge
The U.S. Department of Agriculture has confirmed that the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 is the main reason behind the current "egg shortage." Since 2022, this virus strain has infected about 45 million poultry, further intensifying in December 2024 alone, with 18.25 million infected birds, an increase of 11 million month-over-month, marking one of the most severe avian flu outbreaks in U.S. history.
Market experts analyze that avian influenza has not only significantly affected poultry farming but also disrupted the egg supply chain, exacerbating price volatility. The American Egg Board indicates that the current tight egg supply situation is expected to take 6 to 9 months to alleviate.
Stable Domestic Market and Egg Price Correction
In contrast, the Chinese egg market remains stable, even showing a trend of price decline. Data indicates that by January 20, the domestic wholesale spot price was 4.22 RMB per jin, with ample market supply. As the Spring Festival approaches, the market is focused on clearing inventory, causing wholesale prices to generally drop.
According to Everbright Futures, egg demand may further decline after the Spring Festival, with prices likely to continue correcting in the short term. However, decreased feed costs are supporting farming profitability, with the egg industry's profit level reaching a nearly five-year high in 2024.
Impact on the Chick Market and Future Effects
The U.S. avian influenza outbreak also affects chick supply imports. Oklahoma and New Zealand have experienced avian flu outbreaks, leading to the cancellation of planned grandparent breeding stock imports. Per regulations, a three-month supply pause is required following an outbreak, which will disrupt chick imports in the first quarter of 2025, significantly impacting parent stock and commercial chick supply.
Yisheng Co., a leading domestic chick company, stated that due to import shortages, the supply of parent chicks is expected to be tight in the latter half of 2025, affecting commercial chick supply in 2026. The company plans to alleviate supply and demand pressure by importing from France.
Summary and Outlook
The continued spread of avian influenza in the U.S. has not only exacerbated the local "egg shortage" but also has far-reaching effects on the global egg and chick market. Although the Chinese market has not been significantly impacted in the short term, the profit margin due to decreased feed costs and the long-term effects of interrupted imports will be focal points. As the epidemic develops and policy responses evolve, the global egg industry may face new configurations and challenges.
