- After reaching $67,000, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell back below $66,000, lagging behind the significant gains of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX). This reflects the cryptocurrency market's cautious attitude towards the subsequent implementation of the US-Iran ceasefire memorandum of understanding.
- The spot Bitcoin ETF has shown signs of stagnation after experiencing a net outflow of approximately $5.4 billion over four consecutive weeks. However, there is no clear sign of a return from marginal institutional buyers, and the market lacks sustained risk appetite funding support.
- This week, the market faces multiple key macro variables, including the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision to be announced on Wednesday, the formal signing of the geopolitical agreement on Friday, and changes in the probability of passing the Clarity Act, which clarifies the regulatory framework for crypto assets.
Easing Geopolitical Tensions Trigger Asset Divergence
In the context of substantial progress in the global macro situation, commodities and equity markets have responded positively. With the US government signing the electronic version of the US-Iran ceasefire memorandum and the expectation that the Strait of Hormuz will be fully opened this Friday, Brent crude oil prices have fallen below $83 per barrel. Meanwhile, the three major US stock indices have shown a strong rebound, with the S&P 500 Index (SPX) rising 1.7% in a single day and the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) recording a 3.1% gain. However, Bitcoin (BTC), as a representative of high-risk assets, has not entered an upward channel. After briefly breaking through the key level of $67,000, it quickly retreated, indicating that participants in the crypto market are reluctant to blindly push up valuations before uncertainties are completely eliminated.
Institutional Funds Show Marginal Caution
According to the latest trading data, the spot Bitcoin ETF has faced intense redemption pressure over the past four weeks, with a total net outflow of approximately $5.4 billion. Although this outflow trend has shown signs of pausing recently, the buying willingness of marginal institutional buyers has not fully recovered. Jimmy Xue, co-founder of Axis, stated that the current market rebound is not a clear return of risk appetite but rather a phase of market correction that has not been fully bought into. This institutional-level funding vacuum has led to a lack of sufficient liquidity support for digital assets in the face of macroeconomic benefits, resulting in significantly weaker rebound momentum compared to traditional equity markets.
Retail Fund Inflows Still Require Macro Coordination
In addition to the cautious attitude of institutional funds, the movement of incremental retail funds also limits the expansion space of asset prices. Chris Perkins, the soon-to-be head of the crypto department at Franklin Templeton, pointed out that the recent highly anticipated SpaceX initial public offering (IPO) has ended, which has released some previously locked market liquidity to some extent. If there is substantial improvement in the global macroeconomic environment and liquidity indicators in the future, the retail funds that previously flowed out may seek targets again and return to the cryptocurrency market. However, the realization path of this capital rotation still highly depends on the clearance of mainstream compliance channels and the resonance of macro policies.
Regulatory Policies and Interest Rate Decisions Pose Dual Challenges
In the short term, the crypto market will face two decisive catalytic nodes. First is the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy decision to be released this Wednesday. If the monetary authorities hint at marginal policy easing, it may inject a new round of liquidity into risk assets; conversely, if core inflation rebounds or policy statements are hawkish, market pricing may face further revaluation. Secondly, the formal signing of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement on Friday will directly affect the global commodity pricing chain. Additionally, the probability of passing the Clarity Act, which aims to clarify industry compliance standards, remains uncertain in Congress. If this act is passed in the future, it will become a long-term catalyst for the entry of mainstream compliant institutional long-term funds.
