- The futures of the three major U.S. stock indices showed a comprehensive recovery trend before the market opened, with the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) electronic mini-contract leading the rise by over 0.5%. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury, a global asset pricing anchor, fell nearly 5.8 basis points from a phase high of 4.631% to 4.573%, significantly easing the valuation pressure on growth equity assets.
- The tension on the energy supply side showed marginal cooling, with Brent crude oil futures prices falling by about 2% due to unconfirmed reports that the U.S. might grant temporary exemptions for some Iranian oil exports, which somewhat alleviated market fears of prolonged high inflation.
- At the micro level, corporate divergence intensified. The semiconductor sector rose overall, driven by Nvidia's (NVDA:US) earnings expectations, while Dominion Energy (D:US) surged 15% due to a $66.8 billion premium acquisition by NextEra Energy (NEE:US). Conversely, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN:US) plummeted 11.5% due to its core clinical trial failing to meet expectations.
Yield Curve Correction and Valuation Recovery Logic
The pre-market warming of risk appetite this round was primarily driven by the phase peak and retreat of long-term interest rates. Previously, the resonance of oil prices pushed up by geopolitical premiums and inflation data exceeding expectations led to rising market expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain high interest rates. The CME (CME:US) FedWatch tool showed that traders' bets on a rate hike in January once exceeded 40%. However, with the oil market retreating nearly 2% due to potential sanction exemption news, the energy premium in inflation expectations was temporarily stripped away. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield consequently moved away from the high-pressure zone of 4.631%, directly providing valuation breathing space for technology companies reliant on discounted future cash flows, prompting Nasdaq futures to outperform the Dow.
Tech Heavyweights' Earnings Preview and Momentum
The market focus is highly concentrated on Nvidia (NVDA:US), which is set to release its earnings this week. As a core target of the current artificial intelligence (AI) industry cycle, the company's stock price has rebounded over 36% from its March low and continued a 2.1% rise before the market opened. The sustained strong demand for AI computing power has driven a revaluation of the entire chip industry chain, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's annual gain exceeding 60%. In the absence of substantial reductions in computing power capital expenditures by leading companies, funds are preemptively positioning in core supply chain companies like Micron Technology (MU:US) and Intel (INTC:US), with both companies recording pre-market gains of 4% and 3.7%, respectively, showing institutional investors' continued recognition of the upward logic of the semiconductor cycle.
Mergers, Acquisitions, and Tail Risks in Specific Industries
Beyond macro liquidity expectation games, event-driven characteristics at the individual stock level are extremely significant. The utilities sector witnessed a historic merger, with NextEra Energy's (NEE:US) $66.8 billion all-stock acquisition plan for Dominion Energy (D:US) directly triggering a 15% surge in the latter's stock price. This reflects the strategic revaluation of grid and power generation assets against the backdrop of energy transition and the soaring power demand of AI data centers. Meanwhile, the pharmaceutical and health insurance sectors faced headwinds. UnitedHealth Group (UNH:US) was pressured down 3.2% due to Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.A:US) divestment actions, while Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN:US) failed to meet key clinical endpoints in its late-stage melanoma experimental therapy, leading to rapid institutional stop-losses and a pre-market plunge of 11.5%.
