Recently, both the US CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index) data exceeded expectations, sparking market concerns about inflation, which in turn affected the trends of stock index futures and precious metals markets. Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated that although inflation expectations have declined, the Fed should be more cautious about future rate cuts due to strong economic and labor market performance. This hawkish speech strengthened the dollar, putting pressure on precious metals and stock index futures.
In terms of stock indices, on the last trading day (October 15), the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.65%, the ChiNext Index rose by 2.6%, and the CSI 300 rose by 1.91%. In terms of industry performance, sectors such as computer, defense, military industry, and electronics led the gains, while petroleum and petrochemicals, beauty care, and food and beverages performed weaker. The market turnover reached 16,349.85 billion yuan, an increase of about 629 billion yuan from the previous trading day.
The basis of stock index futures has weakened, particularly the IC and IM basis fell significantly, recording annualized basis rates of -2.8% and -5.2% respectively. Recently, the market's enthusiasm for short hedging of IC and IM has risen, with the cost of extending to the 2411 contract being relatively low. As the pulse-style rally of valuation recovery approaches its end, the market is likely entering a consolidation phase. Investors are advised to adopt a high-sell, low-buy strategy or buy far-month out-of-the-money put options to protect against downside risks in stock portfolios while retaining potential upside opportunities.
In the precious metals market, the commodity properties of gold and silver are supported, but the downward revision of the Fed's rate cut expectations and the strengthening of the dollar put pressure on gold prices. The US non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, reducing market expectations for Fed rate cuts, and precious metals may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Operationally, investors are advised to temporarily observe, with the Shuhui gold contract 2412 reference range being 590-610 yuan/gram and the Shuhui silver contract 2412 reference range being 7500-7900 yuan/kilogram.
Additionally, the industrial silicon market maintains a weak and volatile stance with sluggish demand and increased production cuts on the supply side due to rising electricity prices in the southwest. As the November contract nears expiration, warehouse receipt sales may accelerate, and industrial silicon remains under price pressure. It is recommended to take light short positions in the November contract or extend the price difference operation between the November and December contracts.
In the nickel market, as the demand for new energy slows, downstream restocking willingness is insufficient, offering limited support. Although new capacity in Indonesia is being released, the upcoming rainy season in the Philippines may impact the market, raising sentiment for iron plant inventory restocking and boosting iron prices. Stainless steel market transactions are limited, with strong cost support, and the market may maintain a volatile pattern.
The oil market has been affected by declining demand recently. China's crude oil imports fell year-on-year for the fifth consecutive month in September, and the global demand outlook weighed on oil prices. OPEC's latest monthly report also lowered the 2024 global demand growth forecast, mainly due to China's demand growth slowing down. The ongoing geopolitical conflict between Israel and Lebanon, combined with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's assurance to avoid striking Iran's oil or nuclear facilities, has eased market concerns about energy supply disruptions.
Overall, the stock index, precious metals, and oil markets are all in a period of volatility. It is recommended that investors adopt cautious strategies during high volatility and pay attention to the latest developments in global economic data and geopolitical situations.
