Kpler analysts pointed out on Wednesday that Iran is currently implementing a precise control strategy targeting the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy chokepoint. This selective release mode could lead to a significant underestimation of the potential supply disruption risk by global markets. According to satellite monitoring data from MarineTraffic, only nine ships have successfully traversed the strait since Monday this week. Currently, about 16 million barrels of crude oil per day are effectively excluded from the global market, a volume significant enough to trigger a profound energy crisis.
Market Response
Driven by concerns about supply disruptions, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for May rose 4.8% on Tuesday, closing at $92.35 per barrel. Despite reports that Israel is considering a ceasefire agreement, WTI has risen nearly 38% this month, and Brent crude has surged by 44%. Strategists at JPMorgan analytically suggest that even considering alternative routes and the release of strategic reserves, the market gap in April might still remain around 10 million barrels per day, indicating that the physical bottlenecks are unlikely to be eliminated in the short term.
Supply Gap
Currently, about 2,500 ships are stranded in the Persian Gulf, with another 400 waiting for instructions outside the strait. Kpler's data shows that only Iranian tankers and a very few permitted vessels can pass. Although unconfirmed, rumors about Iran charging $2 million in fees for passage have already heightened panic in the shipping industry. Gasoline prices in the United States have risen by 7% over the past week, reflecting that upstream supply pressures are rapidly passing through to the end-consumer market.
Investment Outlook
SPI Asset Management believes that the current deadlock involving the Strait of Hormuz has no historical precedent. The market's current variable is the duration of the blockade, rather than simple production data. As long as the physical bottlenecks persist, the supply and demand calculations for crude oil will ultimately be forced to align with a higher price equilibrium. Investors should be wary of the market's ongoing desensitization to supply disruption risks, as prolonged conflicts may make spiraling fuel prices the main theme of global inflation in the second quarter.
