Despite initial doubts from the public regarding whether Trump's social media posts suggested 'insider trading,' any investor who followed his 'buy' advice a month ago probably has profited greatly from this market rally.
"Buy Stock" Tweet Sparks Rally, S&P Climbs 14% in a Month
On April 9th, U.S. President Trump posted on social media that "now is a great opportunity to buy," which garnered significant market attention. Just hours after the post, Trump announced a suspension of planned high reciprocal tariffs on several countries. Over the following month, the S&P 500 index surged by 14%, marking the strongest rise during his term, excluding the early pandemic period.
Judging from the 21-day rolling gain, this rebound is almost on par with the market's recovery following the 2020 pandemic lows, making it one of the standout performances of the S&P under Trump's leadership.
Trump Once Again Plays "Stock Advisor," with Market Responding Enthusiastically
Just last Friday (May 8th), Trump once more addressed reporters, expressing optimism about the economic outlook and stating it is "worth adding stocks," assuming the role of an "investment guru" once again. The market reacted positively to his comments.
On Monday (May 12th), the U.S. and China jointly announced mutual tariff reductions, injecting more positive sentiment into the market, causing the three major stock indexes to surge. By the end of the trading day, the Dow rose 1160.72 points (2.81%) to 42,410.10 points; the Nasdaq increased by 779.43 points (4.35%) to 18,708.34 points; and the S&P 500 rose 184.28 points (3.26%) to 5,844.19 points.
Notably, the Nasdaq 100 index has officially entered a technical bull market, rising more than 20%. Additionally, multiple indices, including the Russell 2000, successfully reclaimed all the losses caused by the "Tariff Liberation Day" on April 20th.
Improved Market Sentiment and "Policy Cushion" Expectations
Arun Sai, a multi-asset strategist at Pictet Asset Management, noted that while Trump's remarks draw attention, they reflect market anticipation of a "White House policy cushion." He stated: "This is a kind of 'Put Option Protection Effect.' Although we shouldn't over-interpret it, it's clear the market believes the government won't just sit back and watch the economy decline."
Mark Dowding, chief investment officer at BlueBay Asset Management, commented that the market is gradually moving away from safe-haven assets previously acquired to guard against a possible recession. He explained: "Investors were worried about a potential sudden stop in the economy or trade disruptions, but these concerns are now noticeably postponed, and market risk appetite is increasing."
Trump's Influence Remains Intact, U.S. Stocks Continue Policy-Driven Rally
From a social media tweet to a signal of actual policy easing, and finally to a strong rebound in U.S. stocks, Trump's influence on the market remains significant. Though his statements are sometimes controversial, the upshot is—at least over the past month—those who believed in Trump have won.
