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交易者一生的命题!

交易者一生的命题!

阿海阿海
2024-07-11
Summary:什么是震荡, 什么是趋势; 什么条件是震荡出现的苗头, 需要警惕,什么条件是震荡的大概率可能,什么条件是震荡的确认;什么条件是震荡结束的苗头,什么条件是震荡结束的很大可能, 什么是震荡结束的确认

震荡行情并不如趋势行情讨喜, 因为它比趋势更难把握, 更难琢磨。然而震荡才是市场的常态。

把震荡处理好, 是交易者一生的命题。

市场大部分时间处于震荡的状态, 只有少数时间, 显示出明显的趋势。震荡的本质是多空力量平衡或交投清淡, 震荡出现的时间地点不同具有不同的意义。而处理震荡也因震荡的随机性变得灵活起来,没有固定的套路,有的只是原则性的思考。

对于一般的投资者要形成震荡时期的交易体系可以从以下几个角度出发:

定义自己的震荡和趋势

明确震荡和趋势,这是第一步。

什么是震荡, 什么是趋势; 什么条件是震荡出现的苗头, 需要警惕,什么条件是震荡的大概率可能,什么条件是震荡的确认;什么条件是震荡结束的苗头,什么条件是震荡结束的很大可能, 什么是震荡结束的确认。用什么工具, 道氏、均线、趋势系统或其他指标。

这一步并不难, 趋势和震荡在指标上有着明显的区别, 初期的表现或许需要反复去观察, 反复地确认, 但一旦行情确定了那么接下来需要的就只是具体的操作手法了。

观察周期,判断震荡对操作的影响

本周期是震荡, 那么对于上个周期很可能只是趋势的一部分,对于下个周期则有可能是几段趋势。 因此对于不同的周期需要不同的处理方式。

操作本周期,策略是高抛低吸, 用震荡工具震荡交易; 操作上个周期, 顺大势而为, 趋势工具趋势交易; 操作下个周期, 顺小势而为,趋势交易。震荡出现的位置不同,处理结果不同,阻力支撑位置出现的震荡行情容易出现方向。一般来说,这个地方在震荡还没被识别的时候应该已经进场了, 随着行情的反复, 震荡行情也就逐渐地暴露了出来, 如果此时遭遇了止损那么就耐心等待震荡末期看机会进场。

行情末期出现的震荡通常意味下一个反转即将到来。在黄金或外汇里, 尤其注意行情末期在顶部或底部区间震荡, 通常会一根大阳线或大阴线顺势突破震荡, 造成趋势继续的假象, 然后价格再慢慢回落直至吞没大阳或大阴。面对反正的行情, 不要犹豫, 立刻进场, 止损顶部。

持仓情况下出现的震荡根据风险的大小来处理如果是新仓初建就出现了震荡,说明没有把握好时机。因为仓单在震荡行情中是漂浮不定的,这个时候要么设置一个时间止损, 要么设置一个价格止损。

如果是仓单已经脱离了危险, 能够自保, 但没能达到目标,那么震荡中就要看情况处理它。如果在震荡初期, 那么不妨尽早出场;如果有震荡结束的预兆,那么不妨持有看看。

震荡行情的交易难度是非常高的,尤其是,参与的震荡行情太多, 白白耗费精力信心和耐心,导致在趋势性机会到来时缺乏准备表现不佳,得不偿失。

然而, 难度在于, 震荡行情和趋势性行情是无缝连接的, 并不会有任何明显的提示,正确使用交易策略的关键却是事先有所准备。不能因为个人的经验, 就断言震荡行情很难盈利, 而趋势性行情更容易。

也许有人专门利用震荡行情获利,不过只要长期资金曲线表现良好, 就没有任何问题。但对大部分成功交易者来说, 真正贡献利润的主要部分的,都是趋势性行情。做震荡行情的交易者,必须极端重视止损的作用,绝不可以因为震荡频繁而放弃止损, 那样一旦遇到特征逆转, 趋势性机会出现, 就是最大风险。

然而震荡是朋友并不是敌人。换个角度看, 震荡不过是失败了的突破。不是每次地壳碰撞, 都会发生大地震, 但每次大地震, 都是从一次普通的地壳碰撞里, 衍生出来的。所以,你需要不断地下注,对每次突破下注, 最后成了假突破, 那也没办法。震荡是一种本身想要发展成趋势的努力, 一种奋斗, 不过惋惜的, 他失败了, 仅此而已。当他努力的时候,你开仓进去支撑他,他失败了,你就止损离开他。这是很冷静的策略, 跟心情无关。

另一方面, 多亏了这些震荡, 否则, 这个市场赚钱就太容易了, 是震荡把失败者扫地出门的, 记住, 不是你战胜了对手, 而是市场帮你干掉了他们。说起来容易, 做起来还是困难了一点。

这个市场是无常的, 无常是佛家的观点。如果你把无常看做一个问题, 那么, 这个问题是无解的。 因为你在对抗他, 想要降服他。而如果你接纳了无常, 拥抱他, 那他自然就不是问题了, 所有的困扰也就消失了。这时候你会发现, 其实,单纯的一根均线就能实现稳定获利, 却是自己把一切都搞砸了。

更多相关交易请联系cwg外汇平台阿海微信;

微信图片_20240708172321.jpg

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

The market carries risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account individual users' specific investment goals, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Investing based on this is at one's own responsibility.

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