Regarding Gold:
Overnight, gold reached a new all-time high again. Uncertainty surrounding the U.S. elections and the rising expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September have boosted gold-buying demand. The current international geopolitical landscape and macroeconomic environment also support higher gold prices.
The latest U.S. inflation data has re-entered a downward trend, with the job market showing signs of cooling and other economic data prompting the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts. Recently, Fed officials have noticeably shifted from a hawkish to a dovish tone, increasing market bets on a rate cut.
As expectations for a rate cut heat up, the appeal of precious metals is rising. The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September may be fully reflected in the price trend. After hitting a historic high, bullish enthusiasm may further intensify, leading to an increase in active buying.
Technically: The daily gold candlestick closed with a large bullish candle, breaking previous highs and facing no significant resistance. Market sentiment will likely dominate the trading situation. In the short term, traders can look for entry points based on the support of moving averages, with a focus on the 2450 USD level during the day.
Regarding Crude Oil:
Overnight, crude oil continued to decline slightly, showing signs of a deteriorating pattern. The 80 USD level may become a critical mid-term resistance. While current international oil production remains generally stable, weak demand signals are somewhat bearish for crude oil bulls.
The U.S. Department of Commerce released June retail sales data. The data showed that the month-on-month rate fell to 0%, higher than the market expectation of -0.3% but slightly lower than the previous value of 0.1% (initial value). Meanwhile, May's data was revised up to 0.3%. The U.S. June core retail sales month-on-month rate was 0.4%, with an expected value of 0%, and the previous value was -0.10%. Overall, the data presents a mixed picture.
Considering the decline in consumer confidence, U.S. households may be more sensitive to commodity prices. Rising household debt rates and cooling job markets suggest that wage growth is also slowing, which may dampen consumer spending desires.
Technical: The daily crude oil candlestick closed with a medium bearish candle, with long-term moving averages providing moderate support. In the short term, a continued decline is possible. The 1-hour cycle shows a lack of rebound momentum, suggesting potential new lows within the day. The overall trend might decline before rising. Attention can be given to the 81.50 USD pressure level.
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