With the initial results of the US presidential election announced, US stock futures saw a significant surge, reflecting market optimism over the Republican party potentially gaining a majority in the Senate. Dow Jones futures soared by 560 points, S&P 500 index futures and Nasdaq 100 index futures both rose by 1.1%, and Russell 2000 index futures jumped by over 2%. The VIX volatility index, which measures market fear, dropped by 8%, hitting a two-month low. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.4%, and the dollar index climbed by 1.4% to 104.89, reaching a four-month high.
Citi's equity strategy team stated that the preliminary election results suggest a reduced likelihood of a Democratic sweep, with increased chances of Republicans securing a majority in the Senate. Citi noted that if Trump successfully wins re-election and the Republicans gain full control of Congress, the US stock market could see further rises. "Although trends show Republicans leading in the Senate, several key swing states have yet to be finalized, so it is too early to draw any conclusions." The analyst team also emphasized that the positive reaction of US stocks to the election reflects a market perception that a Republican sweep would benefit the continuation of economic policies.
Though the market is optimistic about a Republican victory, Citi also issued a cautious note. According to valuation indicators like the Levkovich Index, the S&P 500's P/E ratio has reached 24 times, indicating that the market is at a reasonable or full valuation level. Moreover, investors’ optimistic sentiment is driven by expectations of an economic soft landing and earnings growth by 2025, with future growth potentially impacted by uncertainties such as tariff policies.
If the election results reverse and favor Vice President Harris, Citi believes the current gains in the stock index futures might recede.
