- The global surge in capital expenditure on artificial intelligence is driving a structural leap in the valuation of the storage chip industry. Following Samsung Electronics and Micron Technology, SK Hynix's market value has surpassed the $1 trillion mark for the first time, officially establishing a trillion-dollar camp coexisting with the three giants.
- Although the U.S. targeted strikes on Iran have led to a temporary tightening of geopolitical tensions, behind-the-scenes diplomatic negotiations remain on track. Brent crude oil prices have fallen sharply by 3.2% month-on-month, dropping below $97 per barrel, indicating a marginal decline in geopolitical risk premiums.
- Liquidity in safe-haven assets has reversed, with spot gold prices falling below the $4,500 per ounce mark, while the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note has declined for the third consecutive trading day to 4.473%, accelerating the flow of funds into equities and other high-risk assets.
AI Capital Expenditure Cycle Reshapes Semiconductor Valuation Anchors
In the current global market trading, the capital expenditure plans of large-scale cloud service providers are becoming the absolute core guiding liquidity allocation. Market sentiment is further triggered by high growth expectations for chip stock profits. Micron Technology, on a high base of over 200% cumulative gains this year, recorded another 5.3% gain pre-market, while Marvell Technology, about to release its earnings report, also recorded a 5.7% increase pre-market. This strong momentum confirms the systematic upward adjustment of asset return rates for tech companies by sell-side institutions. Goldman Sachs' strategy team has raised the year-end target price for the S&P 500 index from 7,600 points to 8,000 points, with the collective shift to bullish positions by major banks further reinforcing the pro-cyclical inertia of long positions.
Geopolitical Conflict Cooling Marginally Triggers Commodity Repricing
The marginal easing of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has become another major catalyst for cross-asset volatility. Although weekend skirmishes sparked brief supply concerns, commodity traders are shifting pricing weight towards a behind-the-scenes diplomatic solution between the U.S. and Iran. If the expectation of a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is realized, the global oil supply chain's risk resistance will be substantially enhanced. The rapid decline in oil prices directly mitigates the inflation expectations previously driven by energy costs, effectively alleviating the pressure on forward U.S. Treasury sales, and the global financial environment is generally characterized by broad credit and high-risk appetite.
Central Bank Hawkish Tone Offsets Asset Pullback Risk
However, while equity markets hit new historical highs, the macro defenses of the fixed income and foreign exchange markets have not been completely dismantled. European Central Bank officials have recently issued systematic risk warnings about the high volatility that external uncertainties may bring and hinted that even if geopolitical tensions reach a final resolution, given the potential stickiness of service sector inflation, the central bank may maintain a cautious and hawkish interest rate path at its June policy meeting. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda also reiterated that in the complex backdrop of rising wages and high inflation expectations, the transmission of previous energy shocks to core prices has a longer time span, meaning that major global monetary authorities are unlikely to shift to unconditional easing in the short term.
Trader Behavior Ahead of Key Inflation Data
Global traders are currently highly focused on the upcoming release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. As the core indicator most relied upon by the Federal Reserve when establishing its 2% long-term inflation target, the data's performance beyond expectations will directly determine the support strength of the U.S. Treasury yield curve below 4.0%. Currently, the dollar index is maintaining a narrow range around 99.07, while the yen against the dollar at the marginal level of 159.29 has sparked mainstream pricing about official intervention. If the PCE indicator shows core prices exhibiting unexpected resilience, the market's current tolerance for high valuations in technology may face temporary pressure.
