In the fifth week of US-Israeli military action against Iran, the global energy landscape is at a pivotal turning point. US President Trump's comments about taking over Iran's oil export hub, Kharg Island, are not only a geopolitical maneuver but also signal a potential deep and physical restructuring of the global oil supply chain. Brent crude prices have surpassed $115, reflecting market concerns about supply disruptions shifting from short-term disturbances to long-term structural deficiencies.
Kharg Island: The Singular Node Risk in Iran's Energy System
Kharg Island holds an irreplaceable position in Iran's energy map. Due to the inadequate depth of most of Iran's coastline, this island, as one of the few deep-water ports capable of accommodating Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), accounts for over 90% of the nation's exports. Although Iran has recently invested in alternatives like Jask Port, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, data indicates Kharg Island still handles the majority of export flows. If the hub is controlled by external forces or incapacitated by conflict, Iran's oil export capacity would instantly shrink to less than 10%. This extremely concentrated structure makes Kharg Island the ultimate target of the maximal pressure strategy by the US, and the most unstable variable in the global oil price setting.
Supply Chain Transmission: Systemic Threat from Production to Civil Infrastructure
The current conflict is no longer confined to the precise clearing of military targets but shows clear industrial chain strike characteristics. The attack on Kuwait's desalination facilities is particularly noteworthy. In the Persian Gulf region, energy output is highly coupled with fundamental civil infrastructure (water supply, electricity supply). Striking these facilities not only increases operating costs for the affected countries but also significantly raises insurance rates and safety premiums for regional shipping. For downstream refineries, the absence of Iranian crude (particularly heavy sour crude) will force Asian and European buyers to compete globally for similar grades of substitute resources, causing extreme fluctuations in the global oil premium structure. If US forces ultimately implement a ground takeover, the coordination challenges in oil extraction, pipeline transportation, and terminal loading in the relevant regions will greatly increase, and the timeline for supply recovery will become highly opaque.
Competitive Landscape: Venezuelan Model and Reshaping Energy Geopolitical Sovereignty
Trump's clear reference to the Venezuelan model reveals the new logic of the US in dealing with energy-producing countries in 2026: achieving economic sovereignty transfer through military control. In Venezuela, the US effectively took over the country's oil lifeline by controlling sales channels and revenue accounts. However, the competitive landscape in the Persian Gulf is more complex. Iran has stronger regional counterattack capabilities, and its supported Houthi forces have demonstrated asymmetric warfare capabilities by remotely striking Israel and Kuwait. If the US forcibly controls Kharg Island, it may trigger systemic retaliation against neighboring oil-producing countries' facilities, leading to a complete supply chain collapse rather than a regional revaluation of oil markets. In this context, the concept of global energy security is being forced to expand from ensuring transport safety to defending the physical integrity of infrastructure.
