A survey by Platts Energy Information shows that Opec+ crude oil production in August increased by 120,000 barrels/day from the previous month. This increase was due to higher outputs from Iran, Iraq, and Nigeria, which offset the production cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia. Specifically, Opec+'s average production this month was 40.52 million barrels/day, with Opec member countries increasing production by 190,000 barrels/day, while non-Opec countries saw a decrease of 70,000 barrels/day.
Although Opec+'s total crude oil production in August slightly increased, it remains far below the levels seen at the beginning of the summer. Data shows that Saudi Arabia's oil production in August was 8.95 million barrels/day, a decrease of 100,000 barrels/day from the previous month, marking its lowest level since May 2021. Russia's oil production decreased to 9.4 million barrels/day, a decrease of 20,000 barrels/day. The production cuts by these two countries are considered the main reason behind the recent rise in oil prices to a 10-month high.
In addition to Saudi Arabia and Russia firmly implementing production cut agreements and continuously extending their durations. Other Opec+ member countries have also made different degrees of cuts since May.
On September 5, Saudi Arabia and Russia jointly announced the extension of the current production cut agreement until the end of this year. Analysts from S&P Global expect this decision to lead to a supply shortfall of 1.8 million barrels/day in the oil market in the second half of the year.
However, increases in production from Iran, Iraq, and Nigeria are weakening the impact of the significant production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia. Data shows that due to the easing of Western sanctions against Iran amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the absence of Opec+ quotas on Iranian production, Iran's daily oil production has risen to 2.95 million barrels/day, reaching its highest level since November 2018.
Platts' survey also shows that Nigeria's oil production increased by 60,000 barrels/day in August due to the re-commissioning of the Forcados terminal. Meanwhile, Iraq's oil production increased by 110,000 barrels/day.
An agreement reached by Opec+ in June stipulates that member countries failing to meet production quotas must demonstrate the ability to increase output by November, or they will face the risk of a permanent quota reduction. However, data shows that Opec+'s total output in August was still 1.1 million barrels/day below the quota requirement.
Opec+ officials said they will review the production levels of each member country monthly and adjust according to market conditions. The organization's Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, co-chaired by Saudi Arabia and Russia and responsible for overseeing the execution of related agreements, will hold its next meeting on October 4.
Below is the production data of Opec+ member countries, compiled by Platts based on wellhead production, information from oil industry officials, traders, and analysts, as well as proprietary shipping, satellite, and inventory data.
