- The Strait of Hormuz blockade crisis has lasted over a hundred days. Due to multiple global buffering mechanisms, international crude oil prices have not exceeded $200 per barrel as the market expected, and overall, the situation remains controlled.
- China and major energy-importing countries in Asia have significantly absorbed the supply-side shock by utilizing strategic reserves and reducing seaborne crude oil purchases, with China's daily import reduction accounting for more than 70% of the global total decrease.
- Although the current market maintains a weak balance supported by high transparency in satellite monitoring, increased production by non-OPEC countries like the U.S., and alternative energy sources, experts warn that if strategic inventories are depleted or geopolitical situations worsen, there is still a risk of price reassessment in the future.
Strait of Hormuz Disruption and Anomalous Oil Price Behavior
As a strategic chokepoint for about 20% of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas transportation, the long-term closure of the Strait of Hormuz has historically been seen as an unbearable macroeconomic shock. However, following the outbreak of the current Iranian conflict, international oil prices have not spiraled out of control. Brent crude and U.S. WTI crude prices reached a relative high of around $110 per barrel in April this year before fluctuating downward, with May even recording a significant single-month correction in recent years. Several Wall Street energy analysts point out that the market has not fully priced in the tail risk of long-term supply disruptions, and intermittent external rumors between the U.S. and Iran have led investors to maintain expectations of easing tensions, preventing prices from forming a sustained upward trend.
Multiple Buffering Mechanisms Mitigate Supply Shortage Impact
The primary reason for the relative stability of current oil prices is the ample inventories accumulated in the global crude oil market by 2025. These previously accumulated commercial and government reserves formed a solid defense at the onset of the crisis. Meanwhile, non-OPEC oil-producing countries, represented by the U.S. and Brazil, have continued to release production capacity, filling part of the supply gap. Data shows that Brazil's oil production in the first four months of this year increased by about 800,000 barrels per day year-on-year, significantly exceeding previous expectations by major banks. Additionally, some Middle Eastern oil-producing countries have actively used land pipelines to bypass the blocked strait for transportation, and some tankers have turned off positioning systems for stealth transport, alleviating the tight pressure on the spot market to some extent.
Strategic Reserves of Asia's Largest Buyers Play a Key Role
In the process of reshaping the global energy supply chain, China has played a crucial role as a shock absorber. According to the latest commodity data, China's seaborne crude oil imports have decreased by about 3.8 million barrels per day compared to the same period last year, accounting for 74% of the global decline in crude oil imports. Analysts believe that China, with its previously accumulated large strategic crude oil reserves and commercial inventories of state-owned enterprises, can meet domestic refining needs by actively consuming existing inventories, thus avoiding driving up prices in the international spot market. Besides China, major Asian economies such as Japan, South Korea, and India have also reduced seaborne import volumes and adjusted their internal energy structures through energy-saving measures or short-term emergency measures such as restarting coal-fired power generation.
Increased Market Transparency Changes Traditional Trade Allocation
The modern technological revolution is fundamentally changing the pricing logic of energy trading. Unlike the past, which heavily relied on lagging data, current traders can use satellite monitoring, sensor networks, and artificial intelligence analysis systems to grasp real-time global tanker routes, port loading and unloading, and inventory reserves. This highly transparent information environment has greatly improved the resource allocation efficiency of the global supply chain. Once a supply imbalance occurs in a specific region, traders can quickly adjust the flow of goods. However, several major bank experts warn that this balance is short-term and fragile. If the production capacity of core oil-producing countries reaches its ceiling, or if the de-stocking cycle of Asian refining companies ends, the global energy market may still return to a state of tight supply and demand.
