Recently, the US stock market has shown strong performance, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices reaching new highs, prompting some major short sellers on Wall Street to change their stance. Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, Chief Global Equity Strategist at J.P. Morgan, who has long been bearish on US stocks, recommended in a report released on Tuesday that investors adjust their strategies, especially in light of supportive global economic policies and better-than-expected performance of the US economy.
Lakos-Bujas pointed out that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and China's stimulus measures are providing support to the market. Although he maintained his year-end target of 4200 points for the S&P 500 index, he suggested reevaluating the strategy of shorting cyclical stocks.
He explained that the resilience of the US economy has been surprising, particularly with the tight labor market, increased government spending, and healthy consumer balance sheets. Additionally, the outlook for corporate earnings growth appears optimistic, with expected earnings growth accelerating to 12% over the next two years. The rapid development of the AI industry is driving R&D and capital expenditure in tech companies, with an anticipated investment exceeding $500 billion annually.
However, Lakos-Bujas warned that the presidential election in November could bring market volatility, and declining interest rates might adversely affect profits in certain sectors, particularly the financial industry.
As of Wednesday, the S&P 500 index has reached an all-time high for the 44th time this year, with a gain of 0.71%, closing at 5792.04 points. Market optimism is growing, with Wall Street analysts raising year-end target prices. Goldman Sachs predicts the S&P 500 will reach 6000 points by year-end. This indicates that, driven by the Fed's rate cut cycle, the possibility of a soft economic landing is gradually increasing, and investors are full of confidence in the future.
