International oil prices fell after significant fluctuations on Monday, as market risk aversion intensified, leading to a setback of the rebound initiated last Friday. On the first trading day of daylight saving time in the US, recession risks swept through financial markets, with US stocks plummeting. The Nasdaq 100 Index recorded its worst single-day performance since 2022, and Tesla's stock price plunged 15%, marking its largest single-day drop since September 2020. This market panic also affected the commodities market, causing a broad decline in prices.
During night trading, crude prices (607, -8.60, -1.40%) quickly gave up the previous $1 rebound achieved during the European market session, showing a "return run" trend overall. For traders, the market’s violent fluctuations have increased the difficulty of gauging the rhythm, and the current market's intertwining bull and bear characteristics, with emotions quickly shifting, makes the short-term trend more uncertain.
Worsening supply and demand concerns, recession risk weighs on oil prices
Over the weekend, China released the latest CPI data, which fell into the negative range, heightening concerns about demand. Additionally, data showed that in January-February this year, China's crude oil imports fell by 5% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in demand from the world's largest oil consumer. Meanwhile, in the US, Trump's recent tariffs and other policies have raised concerns about economic recession, leading to a significant sell-off in risk assets, also dragging down oil prices.
In the early Asian trading session, oil prices were once pressured lower due to weak demand. The recent European and American refined oil markets have been sluggish, especially with no significant rebound in gasoline and diesel prices despite a brief crude rebound, reflecting insufficient market confidence in end-user demand.
Intensified bull-bear game, oil price trajectory remains variable
After a continuous decline in previous oil prices, an oversold rebound occurred last Friday, mainly due to technical corrections. Additionally, uncertainty surrounding US sanctions on Russia and Iran prompted some shorts to temporarily leave the market and observe. While there is short-term support for oil prices, the factors driving a sustained price rise are still limited. The market has shifted from a previously bear-dominated situation to a stage of bull-bear contention.
However, on Monday, risk aversion intensified again, recession trading regained focus, and risk assets were generally under pressure. The temporary oil price rebound failed to persist, ultimately closing down. It is expected that in the short term, oil prices will continue to fluctuate significantly, with the market potentially seeking effective support levels. Investors need to be cautious and attentive to changes in market rhythm.
