- CITIC Securities (600030:CH) recorded a net profit attributable to the parent company of 10.216 billion RMB in the first quarter of 2026, a year-on-year increase of 54.6%. This quarterly profit scale is equivalent to 2.7 times the total of 12 small and medium-sized brokerages, highlighting the earnings resilience of leading institutions.
- The A-share market activity significantly rebounded, with the total transaction amount reaching 144.51 trillion RMB in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 66.29%. More than 12 million new investor accounts were added, providing core liquidity support for brokerages’ brokerage and margin financing businesses.
- Today, the valuation center of the brokerage sector generally moved upwards, with GF Securities (000776:CH) increasing by more than 6% in a single day. Zhejiang Securities (600999:CH) and Guolian Securities (601456:CH) followed closely, as the market is undergoing a dual re-valuation of the fundamental value and liquidity of industry-leading assets.
Structural Elevation of Profit Centers for Leading Institutions
Data from the first-quarter report disclosure shows that the trend of concentration in China's securities industry is accelerating. CITIC Securities recorded operating income of 23.155 billion RMB, the highest level in the same period in history. CICC (601995:CH) also forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company to be between 3.369 billion and 3.88 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of up to 90%. The over-performance of leading brokerages is mainly due to the synergy effect in heavy asset businesses (such as derivatives and proprietary investments) as well as in light asset businesses like investment banking and wealth management, amid ample market liquidity. In contrast, small and medium-sized brokerages, which have weaker capital replenishment capabilities and severe business homogenization, face pressure on profits, such as Guosheng Securities, whose first-quarter net profit fell sharply by 97.91% year-on-year.
Recovery of Macro Liquidity and Core Business Indicators
The improvement in the fundamentals of the brokerage sector is directly anchored to the abundance of macro liquidity and the marginal warming of capital market trading sentiment. Core operating data shows that in the first quarter, the number of new investor accounts in the A-share market increased year-on-year by 61.15% to 12.0402 million, and the number of new margin financing and short selling accounts also increased by 51.42% year-on-year to 4.784 million. This not only directly boosted commission income from brokerage activities but also significantly expanded the interest spread space of credit business. Guojin Securities (600109:CH) saw its first-quarter net profit increase by 18.83% year-on-year, with its financial report explicitly stating that the increase in net fee and commission income was the core driver of performance growth.
Equity Structure Changes and Long-term Capital Pricing
While the fundamentals are recovering, the equity structure of leading brokerages is also experiencing notable marginal changes. Individual investor Fu Xiaotong became one of the top ten shareholders of CITIC Securities by holding 84.1128 million shares, with a holding ratio of 0.57%, corresponding to a market value of about 2.022 billion RMB. This marks the first time in nearly a decade that an individual has entered the core shareholder list of CITIC Securities. This phenomenon indicates that when industry valuations are at relatively low levels, ultra-high net worth individuals or long-term capital with substantial funds are competing for the upward cycle of capital market prosperity by heavily investing in leading brokerages.
Prospective Assessment of Valuation Recovery and ROE Expansion
Currently, the price-book ratio (PB) of the brokerage sector remains at a historically relatively low level. Many sell-side institutions point out that if the logic of weak macroeconomic recovery can be further confirmed by microdata, the vibrancy of the capital market is expected to be maintained. Analysts from institutions like Industrial Securities and Kaiyuan Securities believe that under the guidance of endogenous growth, the distribution of mutual funds, expansion of overseas business, and issuance of over-the-counter derivatives will succeed traditional brokerage businesses in driving the upward movement of the return on equity (ROE) center of leading brokerages. If related businesses maintain high growth, the valuation recovery trend of the brokerage sector may have certain sustainability.
