Gold: Overnight, gold continued to decline slightly, but the drop significantly narrowed. Technically, there are signs of a short-term halt in the decline. Caution is advised when shorting during the day to guard against a sudden rebound. Fundamentally, bullish factors are also emerging, which may support gold prices.
The World Gold Council stated that as gold becomes increasingly difficult to find, the gold mining industry is struggling to maintain production growth. Data shows that global gold production increased by 4% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year, but annual production is expected to stabilize in the coming years without further growth.
In 2020, global gold production declined for the first time. Last year's production grew by only 0.5% year-on-year. It is becoming increasingly difficult to find gold mines with commercial value, with only about 10% of gold mines being commercially viable. The difficulty in gold mining is increasing, especially in maintaining stable production levels.
Technical Analysis: Gold's daily chart shows a small bullish candle, with the support level validated by the market, potentially marking the start of a rebound. The 4-hour cycle indicates the completion of a structure, with a bullish candlestick pattern appearing. Short-term attention can be given to the support around the $2300 level.
Crude Oil: Overnight oil prices rebounded sharply, forming a technical reversal. Currently, geopolitical risks are rising, market panic is increasing, and the U.S. is starting a new round of strategic crude oil stockpile replenishment, which theoretically supports oil prices.
The U.S. military admitted its aircraft carrier "Eisenhower" was damaged in an attack. Subsequently, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman notified the U.S. a week in advance that the expiring security agreement will not be renewed. This was followed by a large deployment of U.S. troops to the Middle East, further escalating tensions in the region. Given that the region's oil exports account for more than 40% of the global total, an increase in oil prices is inevitable.
Last week, the U.S. Department of Energy announced tenders for two strategic oil reserve stockpiles, with 1.5 million barrels to be delivered in September and another 4.5 million barrels in October, November, and December. This totals an additional purchase of 6 million barrels of oil to replenish strategic reserves, with the current low oil prices providing the Energy Department with significant operational flexibility.
Technical Analysis: Crude oil's daily chart shows a large bullish candle, with prices entering a previous range and forming a reversal. The 4-hour cycle shows the completion of a downward structure and a break above the long-term moving average. Short-term attention can be given to the support around the $77.10 level.
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