If Trump is re-elected, the global energy industry may experience significant adjustments. With his influence in the Senate and Supreme Court, Trump may swiftly implement three major energy-related policies within the first 100 days of his term, impacting the oil and gas markets, geopolitical relations, and energy security of key countries.
First, Trump plans to lower global energy costs by increasing U.S. oil and gas production. In the "Trump Agenda," he explicitly states that the U.S. should become the industrial country with the lowest energy costs globally and promises to eliminate federal permit delays for oil and gas production. He might also resume the liquefied natural gas export permits that were suspended by the previous administration. This policy will boost domestic oil and gas extraction in the U.S., leading to increased supply and exerting downward pressure on global oil prices.
Secondly, Trump may promote peace talks between Russia and Ukraine early in his term. He proposed a strategy of exerting pressure on both Russia and Ukraine to quickly resolve the conflict. This includes signaling to Russia that failure to reach an agreement will result in more significant U.S. aid, while pressuring Ukraine to accept compromises in territorial disputes negotiations. Furthermore, Trump may urge NATO countries to increase defense spending to share the U.S.'s burden within the alliance. This move could have profound implications for the political stability of the EU, particularly affecting Germany and other European nations' energy supply considerations with Russia amid the Russia-Ukraine war and energy issues.
Finally, Trump may allow Israel more freedom to act against Iran. Since the U.S. withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, Trump has taken a hard stance against Iran, believing it used the deal's funds to develop a nuclear weapons program. If Trump eases restrictions on Israel in the Middle East, it could escalate regional tensions and alter global energy flows to strengthen U.S. strategic alliances countering Asian influence.
If implemented, these potential policies would have far-reaching effects on the global energy market and geopolitical landscape.
