On February 18, the United States and Russia held their first talks in Saudi Arabia on ending the war in Ukraine, lasting four and a half hours. This meeting marked the first formal dialogue between the US and Russia on the Ukraine issue, but the absence of Ukraine and European countries has raised widespread international concern and skepticism.
During the talks, Russia made it clear that NATO should not accept Ukraine as a member and firmly opposed any form of NATO military deployment. These demands created a significant divide with the US stance. The US side stated that the war must end permanently through negotiation, and compromises on territorial and security issues might be part of the discussion. US National Security Advisor Waltz and Secretary of State Rubio both pointed out that peace requires concessions from all parties, but Russia has shown no signs of compromise.
Although the possibility of peace was discussed by both sides, the absence of Ukraine and European countries has cast doubt on the legitimacy and effectiveness of the talks. Ukrainian President Zelensky has made it clear that any agreement regarding the end of the war should not be conducted without Ukraine's input. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Scholz emphasized that any decisions about Ukraine must include Ukraine's participation.
During the talks, Russia's hardline stance contrasted sharply with the US's conciliatory approach, particularly on NATO issues, where differences were especially pronounced. Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zakharova further pointed out that it is not enough for NATO not to accept Ukraine as a member, and demanded that NATO abandon the 2008 Bucharest Summit commitment regarding Ukraine joining NATO. These statements indicate that Russia will continue to apply pressure in subsequent negotiations to seek more concessions.
From the perspective of gold prices, the current uncertainty of the situation could lead to fluctuations in market demand for safe assets. If the talks lead to an easing of tensions, the market's risk aversion may decrease, thus reducing upward pressure on gold prices; however, if negotiations fail and tensions escalate again, gold prices might rise due to increased demand for safe-haven assets. The global economy and financial market fluctuations, especially Russia's tough stance and Western sanctions policies, could further affect gold price trends.
In summary, although the US and Russia have shown a willingness to seek peace on the Ukraine issue, the absence of Ukraine and the differences on core issues mean that the future outcome of this meeting remains uncertain. Achieving peace will depend on Ukraine's participation and the coordinated efforts of the international community. Meanwhile, this uncertainty will have an important impact on the market, including gold prices, and investors need to closely follow subsequent developments.
