- Global equity assets remain at high levels, supported by the AI capital expenditure boom. The benchmark stock indices in Japan and South Korea have reached new records, driven by expectations of restructuring among memory chip giants, effectively offsetting the short-term emotional pressure from renewed tensions in the Middle East.
- International crude oil prices continue to approach the $100 per barrel mark, supported by geopolitical premiums in the Strait of Hormuz. Central bank officials from major economies issued hawkish rate hike warnings at a meeting in Tokyo to curb the risk of secondary inflation caused by supply chain disruptions.
- NVIDIA plans to increase its annual investment in Taiwan to $150 billion, coupled with Samsung Electronics reaching an internal labor agreement to mitigate strike risks. The tech supply chain demonstrates a strong ability to attract capital amid the macroeconomic tightening storm.
Resonance of Geopolitical Premiums and Oil Price Pressure
The current pricing logic of global major assets is caught in an asymmetric tug-of-war between technological dividends and geopolitical headwinds. Although most market traders tend to look past the short-term supply chain disruptions caused by Middle East conflicts to assess long-term asset returns, the escalation of military actions around the Strait of Hormuz continues to inject rigid risk premiums into the energy market. The U.S. targeted strikes in Iran's southern Hormozgan Province have led Tehran to question the effectiveness of the previous ceasefire agreement. Even if the U.S. and Iran reach some form of interim diplomatic compromise in the future, the backlog of large cargo ships and oil tankers currently stranded in the Gulf region will continue to exert structural pressure on the crude oil spot supply chain during the Northern Hemisphere's summer energy peak in the coming months.
Global Central Banks Build a Hawkish Defense Line
Faced with the input price pressure from oil prices lingering at high levels around $100 per barrel, the monetary authorities of major global economies have not shown the leniency that the market previously expected. At a meeting of senior central bank officials in Tokyo, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda issued a clear warning, emphasizing that temporary energy shocks caused by external geopolitical conflicts can easily translate into persistent structural inflation pressure through inflation expectations. This statement resonated strongly with the hawkish guidance of European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel, who publicly reiterated that even if the U.S. and Iran reach a comprehensive ceasefire agreement, the ECB still has ample macroeconomic necessity to continue raising interest rates or maintain a high-interest-rate environment at the upcoming June meeting.
Divergent Policy Paths of Asia-Pacific Monetary Authorities
The policy tightening risks triggered by high commodity prices are not limited to the core inflation zones of Europe and the U.S., but also cause a chain reaction within emerging markets and developed economies in the Asia-Pacific region. Although the Reserve Bank of New Zealand barely maintained its benchmark interest rate level unchanged at its latest policy meeting, the tightening inclination revealed in its internal meeting minutes almost led to an unexpected rate hike. RBNZ policymakers clearly warned the market that if core inflation indicators in the third quarter show greater-than-expected stickiness due to the pass-through of transportation and energy costs, more aggressive rate hikes than currently priced in by the swap market will have to be taken in future meetings, directly leading to an overall upward shift in the yield curve of the Asia-Pacific fixed income market.
Tech Giants' Capital Expenditure Mitigates Macro Headwinds
Amid the resurgence of a sell-off in the overall fixed income market and the rise in the central borrowing cost, the global stock market's ability to remain in the historical high range relies entirely on the endogenous growth blueprint released by super tech giants. NVIDIA's significant move to substantially increase its annual investment in Taiwan to $150 billion has largely locked in the total capital expenditure of the global semiconductor supply chain for the coming quarters. Meanwhile, Samsung Electronics' employees voted to approve a wage agreement, successfully avoiding a strike crisis that could have disrupted the global high-bandwidth memory supply and demand. This micro-level risk clearance further strengthens the collective behavior of buyer funds in the tech sector. If core inflation indicators show marginal slowdown due to policy suppression in the medium term, the valuation expansion space for tech assets is expected to be further solidified.
