The solar photovoltaic industry enters another earnings season amidst the contradiction of "increased volume, weak prices": installations and stock scale continue to grow, but there is a lack of recovery in industry chain prices, with several segments still mired in losses. Recently, numerous listed companies have disclosed performance forecasts, with leading companies like Tongwei Co., Ltd. and TCL Zhonghuan still experiencing significant losses, highlighting the industry's challenging bottom.
Impressive Installation Data: Scale Expansion Does Not Equal Profit Improvement
Examining demand and installation data, solar photovoltaics are still expanding. According to data from the National Energy Administration, as of the end of November 2025, the nationwide solar power installed capacity reached 1.16 billion kilowatts, representing a 41.9% year-on-year increase. However, from the perspective of companies, the increase in installations and scale growth has not been synchronously translated into profit recovery, and the market is still constrained by supply-demand mismatch.
Losses Remain High: Pressure on Silicon Material, Wafers, and Modules
Several leading companies continue to forecast significant losses:
- Tongwei Co., Ltd. anticipates a net profit loss of approximately 90 to 100 billion yuan for 2025, with operational factors significantly dragging down profits along with increased impairment provisions.
- TCL Zhonghuan expects a net profit loss of 82 to 96 billion yuan in 2025, citing the industry still being in a supply-demand imbalance phase, with major industry chain prices lingering at low levels and insufficient profit recovery transmission.
- The module sector has also not fully “decompressed”. For instance, Longi Green Energy, although reducing losses compared to the previous year, still forecasts a loss between 60 to 65 billion yuan, demonstrating the intense competition downstream.
Structural differences have emerged within the industry: some companies show significant loss reductions and even achieve nominal profit turnovers through one-off factors like equity disposals; however, after excluding non-recurring gains and losses, the pressure on core businesses remains significant.
Cost and Price "Double Squeeze": Silver Paste Increases, Raw Material Prices High, Demand Below Expectations
The most direct impact on profits comes from the combination of rising costs and weak prices. Industry insiders believe that the supply-demand imbalance stage persists, with insufficient momentum for sustained price recovery; simultaneously, the price of silver paste required for battery and module production has surged temporarily, combined with some key raw materials remaining high, making cost pressures harder to alleviate.
Regulators Draw a "Red Line": Halting Collaborative Production Reduction for Price Support
The State Administration for Market Regulation recently interviewed industry associations and several leading polysilicon companies, clearly prohibiting agreements on capacity, utilization rates, production and sales volumes, and sales prices, emphasizing compliance boundaries and antitrust risks, thereby cooling expectations for "collaborative production reduction to boost prices".
This means that even if the industry wishes to improve supply-demand through self-discipline, future efforts will rely more on market clearing and enterprises' own cost reduction and efficiency enhancement rather than "collective volume control" for price support.
Leading Companies’ Self-Rescue Plans: Betting on Energy Storage and Mergers to Complete the Chain
With slow recovery in core businesses, energy storage is becoming the second growth curve for many photovoltaic companies. Reports indicate that Trina Solar is accelerating the promotion of energy storage and system solution businesses, strengthening its overseas market expansion; JinkoSolar is also optimistic about global energy storage demand over the next few years and is increasing the proportion of high-profit overseas markets.
Mergers and acquisitions are also picking up speed: Longi is entering the energy storage track through acquisitions; TCL Zhonghuan proposes to acquire a module company to improve its integrated chain, optimize existing production capacity, and expand its technology and application scenario layouts.
Market Focus Going Forward: Clearing Rhythm and Verification of "Profit Inflection Point"
In the short term, investors are focused on three main points:
1) When will the supply-demand mismatch actually ease (whether capacity clearing and order improvement happen concurrently);
2) Whether cost increases will temporarily recede (impact of silver paste and upstream raw material fluctuations on gross profit);
3) Whether new business from energy storage and mergers can contribute verifiable profits by 2026.
