At a critical moment as the U.S. election begins, oil traders are heavily betting that oil prices will soar to $100 a barrel in response to potential price volatility due to political instability. According to Bloomberg data, over 10 million barrels of U.S. December crude oil call options traded in the price range of $90 to $100 on Monday evening. These contracts, expiring on November 15, provide traders with a cheaper way than futures to deal with possible price surges.
The demand for oil call options has continued to rise recently. Since the start of the fourth quarter, the oil options market has experienced the largest volatility in years, especially during the period leading up to the U.S. election on November 5 and the presidential inauguration in January. Market news indicates that Iran is planning a complex retaliatory action against Israel, including the use of powerful weapons, which further increases the risk of oil price volatility.
Over the past month, the interest in call options on the oil market has soared to unprecedented levels, setting a new high in the number of open contracts. Although the bullish sentiment slightly cooled after Israel's limited attack on Iran last week, the premium on call options remains close to its highest level since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. This reflects the market's strong expectation that oil prices could soar due to escalating tensions in the Middle East.
