On Thursday (November 21st), data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that as of the week ending November 16th, the initial jobless claims in the U.S. slightly fell to 213,000, marking the lowest level since the week of April 27, 2024, which was below the market expectation of 220,000 and the previous figure of 217,000. This data indicates that the U.S. labor market remains resilient.
In contrast, the number of continued jobless claims for the week ending November 9th rose to 1.908 million, higher than the market expectation of 1.873 million and the revised previous value of 1.872 million. For the week ending November 16th, the four-week moving average of initial jobless claims decreased to 217,700, with the previous value revised from 221,000 to 221,500.
Data Interpretation: Volatility and Stability Coexist
This initial jobless claims data covers the Veterans Day holiday, possibly causing some fluctuations. However, analysts note that even after short-term disruptions caused by the early October hurricanes "Helen" and "Milton" and strikes at Boeing and other aerospace company factories, the U.S. labor market remains strong. The consistently low number of layoffs effectively mitigated the potential economic impacts of a hiring slowdown.
Non-Farm Employment May Rebound
Several analysts suggest that the unexpected decline in initial jobless claims last week might signal a rebound in non-farm employment growth in November. Earlier short-term labor market fluctuations caused by weather and strikes have stabilized. The non-farm employment report will be a focal point for investors and policymakers, especially regarding its impact on the future policy path of the Federal Reserve.
Policy Impact: Non-Farm Data as a Key Reference
November's non-farm employment data will be a crucial basis for the Federal Reserve's decision on whether to adjust interest rates at its December meeting. The market's expectation for a December rate cut by the Fed has cooled. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December fell from 72.2% a week ago to 57.8%. If the non-farm data is strong, the Federal Reserve may be more inclined to keep rates unchanged, to observe the subsequent performance of economic growth.
Stable Labor Market, Unclear Policy Outlook
Overall, the decline in initial jobless claims in the U.S. further demonstrates the resilience of the labor market. Despite short-term impacts from weather and strikes, the overall employment trend remains positive. In the future, November's non-farm employment data will be an important indicator for the market and Federal Reserve decisions, and investors should closely monitor its release and potential impact on economic policy.
