Daily Review
Economic Calendar
June 3 (Monday) Economic Data and Events (Beijing Time)
09:45 China May Caixin Manufacturing PMI
15:50 France May Manufacturing PMI Final
15:55 Germany May Manufacturing PMI Final
16:00 Eurozone May Manufacturing PMI Final
16:30 UK May Manufacturing PMI
21:45 US May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final
22:00 US May ISM Manufacturing PMI
US April Construction Spending Month-on-Month
Market Review
On Friday, the US April Core PCE Price Index recorded a 0.2% month-on-month increase, the lowest since December 2023. The US May Chicago PMI was at 35.4, the lowest since May 2020. The swap market currently expects at least one rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2024. Following the data release, the US Dollar Index continued to weaken, recording its first monthly decline in 2024, closing at 104.63.
Today's Focus
US Dollar Index: On Friday, it retested the resistance area around 104.9 and then retreated. In the short term, focus on the support around 104.3. If the support holds, it may rise again. The short-term range-bound trend continues. Strong support is at 103.8; a break below 103.8 will trigger a large-scale correction.
EUR/USD: On Friday, it tested the upward resistance near 1.08. The short-term range-bound trend between 1.08 and 1.09 continues. Current price is in the middle of the range; wait for the trend to test the upper boundary for short positions or the lower boundary for long positions. Focus on the trend continuation opportunities after breaking out of the range.
GBP/USD: As long as the short-term support at 1.27 holds, the overall upward trend continues. Focus on the lower support at 1.267. If it does not break effectively, the upward trend remains unchanged. Monitor the resistance area around 1.28, and take profit on long positions when price reaches this level, then wait for market trends.
USD/JPY: The price continues to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term. Focus on the support around 156.5 and the resistance area between 157.5 and 158. The short-term range-bound trend continues unless there is an effective breakout. Look for opportunities to sell high and buy low in the short term.
AUD/USD: The price fluctuates within the large range between 0.6558 and 0.6715. Currently, it is testing the internal resistance of this range. Focus on the resistance around 0.667. If the price cannot break through effectively, consider short positions. If it breaks upward, focus on the resistance near the upper boundary of the range.
USD/CAD: The price continues to fluctuate. The short-term support is around 1.358. If the price does not break this level effectively, aim for selling high and buying low. If the price tests and holds, consider long positions. Strong support at 1.3547 remains, and as long as it holds, there are opportunities for the price to rise within the fluctuation range.
Crude Oil: The price has reached the previous low. Focus on the reaction at this level. The major support is around 75.3, aligning with the 61.8% retracement of the previous upward trend. Aggressive traders can go long at this level, while conservative traders should wait for a clear reversal sign before going long.
Gold: The short-term trend shows stronger downward momentum. Focus on short selling opportunities if the price does not break above the 2370 level. The strong support is around 2277 and 2250. If the price reaches these levels and shows a clear reversal, it is likely to rise again. The overall strategy is to go short in the short term and long in the long term.
S&P Index: On Friday, the index tested 5200 and then moved upward. Short-term long positions should partially take profits around this level. The resistance area remains between 5320 and 5350. Unless there is an effective breakout, the high-level fluctuation trend continues. The major upward trend remains intact unless a lower point is broken.
Bitcoin: After multiple tests of the support area between 66000 and 67600, the price has shown a clear upward reversal. The strategy remains to go long unless this support range is broken. The resistance remains unchanged at 70500-72000. Focus on upward opportunities once the support area is firmly established.
