- The US Dollar Index ended its eight-day downward trend, rebounding to around 98.20, influenced by the ten-day ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon. Spot gold retreated to the 4,790-dollar mark as the market is repricing geopolitical risk premiums in the Middle East.
- The disruption in the supply chain of the Strait of Hormuz continues to ferment, with WTI crude oil futures rebounding by 2.50% to the 90.50-dollar level. New York Federal Reserve President John Williams expects inflation to rise to the 2.75% to 3% range this year, triggering a reevaluation of the Federal Reserve's space for interest rate cuts.
- All three major US stock indexes rose, with the S&P 500 surpassing the 7,000-point mark. TSMC (TSM: US) reported a significant 58% year-over-year increase in net profit for the first quarter, reaching 572.5 billion New Taiwan Dollars, providing key support for the Nasdaq Composite Index and the AI infrastructure sector with its strong financial performance.
Contraction of Risk Premium and Exchange Rate Revaluation
As signs of a phase of easing in geopolitical tensions emerge, the risk-averse sentiment in the global foreign exchange market is undergoing marginal changes. After the previous retreat, the US dollar stabilized, broadly suppressing non-US currencies. The Australian dollar traded around 0.7155 against the US dollar. Despite Australia's addition of 17,900 jobs in March and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.3%, reinforcing the Reserve Bank of Australia's current policy stance, it could not counteract the macro pressure from a stronger US dollar. Meanwhile, the British pound gently receded to the 1.3530 range, with the UK's February GDP growing by a better-than-expected 0.5% month-over-month, while market pricing for two rate hikes by the Bank of England in 2026 provided limited bottom-line support for the pound sterling.
Blockage of Energy Supply Chain and Inflation Stickiness Outlook
The pricing logic in the crude oil market is shifting away from pure geopolitical sentiment towards data verification on the actual supply side. Although there is an expectation of resumed talks between the US and Iran, the commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains obstructed due to a dual blockade mechanism. Iran's move to process transit fees through local financial institutions has further intensified the struggle for control over the energy choke point. Against this backdrop, US industrial production fell by 0.5% month-over-month in March, with weak performance in the automotive and utility sectors, indicating that high energy input costs have started to weigh on manufacturing. If energy supply cannot normalize in the short term, structural inflation pressures may hinder the central bank's process of monetary policy normalization.
Realization of Tech Stock Earnings and Broad Index Divergence
Amid lingering macro uncertainties, the earnings fundamentals of micro enterprises have become the decisive variable in the pricing of equity assets. TSMC's capital expenditure guidance approaching the upper limit of the $52 billion to $56 billion range from the upstream of the industry chain confirmed the prosperity of global computing power investments, directly driving tech-weighted stocks higher. However, traditional cyclical sectors and the financial services industry showed divergence. Abbott (ABT: US) fell by about 4% after lowering annual profit guidance, and Charles Schwab (SCHW: US) also came under pressure despite recording record profits, due to forward guidance falling short of expectations. If macro interest rates remain in a restrictive range for a long time, valuations of non-tech assets lacking endogenous growth momentum may face more stringent reevaluation tests.
