Regarding Gold:
Overnight, gold reached a recent high driven by market sentiment, but the momentum was limited. After the weekend's developments, the initial safe-haven sentiment may have cooled, and the market may have already absorbed the impact of the Trump shooting incident.
Overnight, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated a dovish stance, which the market interpreted as laying the groundwork for a rate cut. He believes inflation is heading towards the expected 2% target, and the labor market has indeed cooled. He emphasized that a weakening job market could be a reason for the Federal Reserve to cut rates.
Powell clearly signaled a dovish outlook, although he did not provide a specific timeline for a rate cut. The market believes it is already on the way. Goldman Sachs thinks the Federal Reserve has ample reasons to cut rates at this month's meeting. The interest rate monitoring tool shows that the market leans towards a rate cut in September, with a probability close to 90%.
Technically: The gold daily chart shows a medium bullish candle, but prices are near historical highs, creating some pressure. In the 1-hour cycle, there is a possibility of a completed structure and signs of a bull trap, indicating a high probability of a short-term pullback. Intraday, short-term attention can be paid to the resistance line at $2426.
Regarding Crude Oil:
Overnight, oil prices mainly traded sideways with a somewhat restrained performance from both bulls and bears. The short-term adjustment is likely to continue. The market's outlook on oil demand remains generally pessimistic, limiting the upside potential of oil prices to some extent.
Currently, Trump's chances of winning the election are very high. If he returns to the White House, protectionist trade policies may prevail, potentially impacting global supply chains and the multilateral trade system, which could drag down the global economy and further affect global oil consumption demand.
BP forecasts that global oil demand will peak in 2025 and then gradually decline, which is earlier than the International Energy Agency's expectation (2030). However, the IEA has also lowered its consumption growth forecast, reducing next year's demand growth from 1 million barrels per day to 980,000 barrels per day.
Technically: The crude oil daily chart shows a small bearish candle with continued downward pressure. In the 1-hour cycle, the highs are moving lower, and the lows are flat, indicating a high probability of forming a bearish continuation pattern. Intraday, if prices break below the $81 line, there may be a deeper adjustment.
[Important Disclaimer: The content and opinions above are provided by the third-party partner ZhiSheng for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions and bear the risks accordingly.]
