On November 13, the domestic futures market opened with significant fluctuations. The leading contracts for palm oil, rebar, and soda ash showed varied trends, reflecting multiple market responses to the current supply and demand fundamentals and short-term risks. Palm oil, in particular, remained strong with a current price of 10,032 yuan/ton, though the market anticipates a future demand pullback. News of declining Malaysian palm oil exports and potential slowdown in Indonesia's biofuel plans intensified the pressure for palm oil adjustment.
In the case of rebar, the market's bullish sentiment weakened due to the seasonal decline in construction demand and stable supply. Although government infrastructure policies may provide some support, the anticipated low winter demand could continue to put pressure on rebar prices. The main rebar contract fluctuated in the lower range, with support concentrated around 3,300 yuan. Analysts recommend paying attention to subsequent policy and demand-side developments.
In the soda ash market, despite high inventory levels, the expected recovery in glass demand provides some price support. Recently, the main soda ash contract fluctuated around 1,515 yuan, with attention on the impact of the glass industry demand recovery on prices.
The glass market is affected by seasonal factors leading to weak demand, and as winter construction slows down, prices are under pressure. In the agricultural products market, falling soybean meal stocks and rising demand led to steadily increasing prices, while soybean oil faces inventory pressure, increasing medium-term correction risks.
The PTA market is pressured by increased supply and a slowdown in textile demand, expected to continue a weak trend, requiring observation of downstream demand recovery. Though heating demand in winter is approaching, fuel oil prices remain under pressure due to sufficient supply in the short term.
Overall, the supply and demand relationship plays a leading role in current market trends, with significant differences in bullish and bearish sentiment across various futures products.
