On Wednesday (May 29), during the Asian session, international crude oil prices saw moderate increases, influenced by the US's new policy restricting Chevron's export of Venezuelan crude oil, which heightened market concerns over supply constraints. Meanwhile, EU-US trade moves, OPEC+ meeting prospects, and technical signals also affected market sentiment.
According to market data, as of Beijing time in the morning, Brent crude futures rose $0.47 to $64.56 per barrel, an increase of 0.73%; US WTI crude rose $0.49 to $61.23 per barrel, an increase of about 0.48%.
US Tightens Crude Oil Export Licenses
The direct driver of this round of oil price increase is Washington's tightening policy on Venezuelan crude oil exports. On February 26, US President Trump officially revoked the previous license version and reauthorized Chevron to retain its assets in Venezuela but prohibited it from exporting crude oil or expanding related businesses. This decision is interpreted as a significant impediment to Venezuela's oil production chain.
Westpac Commodity Strategy Director Robert Rennie pointed out that this restriction may cause US refiners to lose a portion of crude sources, thereby increasing reliance on Middle Eastern supplies. He warned: "This change will lead to tightening in the oil supply chain again, especially before the summer travel peak, and the market will have to reevaluate inventory strategies."
EU-US Trade Interactions Easing Expectations
On a macro level, the EU has also signaled intentions to improve trade relations with the US. According to surveys, Brussels has asked several large companies to submit US investment plans, potentially paving the way for resuming trade talks. Last weekend, Trump just withdrew the threat of imposing a 50% tariff on EU goods, which also alleviated concerns about a potential decline in crude oil demand.
Nuclear Talks and OPEC+ Meeting as Short-term Variables
Additionally, the market remains focused on the progress of the fifth round of US-Iran nuclear talks. Currently, no significant breakthrough has been seen, temporarily easing concerns about Iran's crude returning to the international market. Meanwhile, OPEC+ will hold a regular meeting this Wednesday, and according to several sources, this meeting is expected to maintain the current production policy unchanged. However, eight member countries will hold a small meeting this Saturday to specifically discuss the July production arrangement.
Rennie predicts that July production may increase by 411,000 barrels per day, but given the current weak demand, this adjustment may elevate global crude oil inventory levels, further suppressing price increases.
Technical Signals Indicate Rebound Potential
From a technical perspective, WTI crude oil prices are currently finding solid support above $60, with short-term moving averages steadying, and the MACD indicator forming a golden cross at a low level, indicating strengthening rebound momentum. If it breaks through $61.80, it is likely to challenge the previous high resistance near $64; if it breaks the crucial support at $60, the possibility of falling back to the $58.50 region cannot be ruled out.
Market Outlook:
Amid continually escalating global supply-demand conflicts, geopolitical tensions, and intertwined policy debates, short-term oil price trends are likely to remain strong yet volatile. Investors should closely monitor U.S. energy policies, OPEC+ developments, progress in Iran nuclear talks, and changes in summer travel demand to judge the next phase of the crude oil market direction.
