- Due to the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to disruptions in maritime routes, about one-fifth of global maritime oil transport faces potential risks. Brent crude oil futures prices have recently surged significantly to nearly $120 per barrel, reaching the highest level since 2022.
- The latest joint statistics from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and S&P Global Mobility show that high fuel costs are forcing a global shift in end-user consumption. In March or April of this year, 37 countries set new historical records for monthly electric vehicle sales.
- In its latest report, the International Energy Agency raised its forward-looking expectations, predicting that global electric vehicle sales will reach 23 million by 2026, with a year-on-year increase of about 15%, and the share of global new car sales is expected to reshape to 30%.
Geopolitical Risk Premium Restructures Global Energy Costs
The uncertainty of navigation through the critical Hormuz Strait in the Middle East has significantly increased, directly disrupting the global oil supply chain. As a result of this impact, the benchmark Brent crude oil price has been rising. Industry analysis institutions generally point out that if the geopolitical blockade lasts longer than expected, there is a possibility that oil prices could exceed $150 per barrel. The continued high retail fuel prices are accelerating the erosion of the economic viability of traditional fuel vehicles, forcing consumers in many countries to lean towards the new energy camp in their car purchase decisions.
Significant Sales Growth Recorded in Core European and Asia-Pacific Markets
Among the 150 countries with statistical data, 37 countries have set new records for monthly electric vehicle sales. The European market, catalyzed by rising fuel prices, was the first to be affected, with the registration of pure electric vehicles (BEVs) in 15 European countries in March increasing by 51% year-on-year, with absolute monthly sales exceeding 224,000 units, and market share rapidly climbing to 22%. Meanwhile, the automotive consumption structure in the Asia-Pacific region has also undergone marginal changes, with Australia's electric vehicle market share nearly doubling to 23% in March, and monthly sales of pure electric vehicles reaching 15,839 units, demonstrating strong penetration momentum.
Emerging Markets Show Structural Substitution Effects Against the Trend
In emerging markets such as Latin America and Southeast Asia, electric vehicles also show strong growth resilience. Although the overall car market sales in the Philippines recorded an 18.9% year-on-year decline in April, electric vehicle sales achieved a significant increase against the trend, forming a stark contrast with the overall sluggishness of the traditional fuel vehicle market. The Brazilian market, directly catalyzed by rising traditional fuel costs, saw the average gasoline price rise to 6.3 reais per liter in March, a 37% increase compared to the same period in 2020, providing expansion opportunities for high-cost-performance new energy manufacturers. Chinese automaker BYD (002594:CH) took advantage of this to top the Brazilian retail sales chart for the first time.
Long-term Supply and Demand Outlook and Macro Variables Constraints
According to the International Energy Agency's "2026 Global Electric Vehicle Outlook" report, the global new energy vehicle market is undergoing a profound shift from policy-driven to cost-driven. If international oil prices continue to run at high levels, the growth rate of electric vehicle sales in the Asia-Pacific region this year is expected to exceed 50%, and the Latin American market will also maintain strong growth momentum. However, analysts also warn that the future penetration speed of global electric vehicles is still constrained by multiple variables such as supply chain capacity, the load capacity of national power grids, and changes in macro fiscal policies. If there are abnormal fluctuations in the prices of core raw materials, the market pricing and popularization pace may need to be reassessed.
