- The Taiwan Weighted Index (TWSE: TAIEX) fell by 0.39% on Wednesday, closing at 40,020.82 points, marking the fourth consecutive day of decline. Market funds are defending and strategizing around the 40,000-point mark, with the settlement effect of the Taiwan index futures exacerbating intraday volatility.
- Technology heavyweights are facing valuation correction pressure, with TSMC (2330: TT) closing down 0.91%. The market is currently highly focused on the upcoming first-quarter earnings report from Nvidia (NVDA: US) to reassess the subsequent growth momentum of the AI industry chain.
- The external macro environment is suppressing liquidity in emerging markets. U.S. inflation data for April exceeded expectations, pushing up the yield on ten-year Treasury bonds. Additionally, geopolitical tensions have driven up oil prices, prompting a faster rotation of safe-haven funds into defensive sectors such as finance and telecommunications.
Market Liquidity Changes and Futures Settlement Strategies
Trading sentiment in the Taiwan stock market cooled significantly today, with the initial value of the market turnover falling to 978.923 billion TWD, a noticeable shrinkage from the revised 1.151219 trillion TWD of the previous trading day. This pattern of simultaneous volume and price decline reflects the strong wait-and-see attitude of institutional investors ahead of key data releases. Coinciding with the settlement of Taiwan index futures, bulls and bears engaged in fierce intraday battles, causing the index to oscillate frequently around the flat line. Currently, the five-day and ten-day moving averages of the index have formed a technical downward crossover, and the monthly line resistance at 40,355 points is gradually rising, creating short-term pressure. If subsequent trading volume cannot effectively expand, the index will face significant challenges in breaking through the monthly line resistance range, with downside support temporarily being repriced in the 38,000 to 39,000 point range.
AI Valuation Reassessment and Capital Rotation
As the core driving force of the current global tech stock cycle, AI-related stocks, after experiencing previous valuation expansion, are now facing a phase of profit-taking pressure. TSMC, as a core supplier of advanced processes globally, has seen its weak stock performance directly drag down the semiconductor index. Market analysis indicates that leading electronic stocks are facing pressure to revert to mean valuations, with a significant spillover effect of funds. Some institutional funds have begun defensive reallocation, shifting positions towards financial and telecommunications groups with high dividend characteristics and earnings certainty. This style shift indicates that, in the absence of new fundamental upward catalysts, market risk appetite is marginally converging.
Tech Giants' Earnings Outlook and Supply Chain Pricing
Global capital markets are holding their breath for Nvidia's quarterly financial report. As the absolute leader in AI computing infrastructure, its revenue guidance will directly determine the visibility of orders for the entire Taiwan supply chain in the second half of the year. According to the management team of the Yuanta Global Blue Chip 100 ETF, the global tech giants have shown strong earnings resilience this earnings season, with expected annual earnings growth revised sharply from an initial 33% to 66%. This data confirms that AI has substantively moved from the concept speculation phase to the performance realization phase. If Nvidia's forward guidance once again exceeds Wall Street expectations, it is expected to reconstruct the valuation models for high-end servers, advanced packaging, and high-bandwidth memory segments.
Macro Variables Suppression and External Input Risks
The continuous pressure on the Taiwan stock market is not only due to internal technical adjustments but also deeply rooted in the marginal deterioration of the external macro liquidity environment. The latest U.S. consumer price index and producer price index for April both exceeded market expectations, indicating strong inflation stickiness. This presents a severe policy test for the new Federal Reserve Chair, Walsh, as the market closely watches his balancing strategy between maintaining price stability and responding to potential pressure from the White House. The rise in inflation expectations has directly pushed the yield on the U.S. ten-year benchmark Treasury bond to its highest level in over a year, with the increase in risk-free rates substantially suppressing the valuation center of global equity assets, leading to a more conservative allocation strategy by foreign capital in emerging markets.
