- The United States and Iran are nearing a preliminary agreement to end the Gulf War, which is expected to significantly boost global financial markets' risk appetite, leading the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI:US) to rise by 1.1%, while the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI:KS) reached a record high of 7,384.56 points.
- There was a dramatic revaluation in global commodities and foreign exchange markets, with both West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil futures contracts falling by about 7%, the US dollar declining by approximately 0.5% against major currencies, and the Japanese yen rising by more than 1% against the dollar during the day.
- The technology and digital asset sectors showed liquidity resonance, with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD:US) surging nearly 17% due to better-than-expected performance, driving the valuation expansion of the global semiconductor industry chain; meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC:Crypto) broke through the $82,000 mark, supported by inflows into spot ETFs.
Geopolitical Risk Premium Stripping and Energy Pricing Restructuring
Reports from US media about the US and Iran nearing an agreement to suspend nuclear enrichment activities have become the core catalyst dominating macro trading logic this week. As US President Donald Trump revealed the suspension of the project aimed at guiding ships away from the Strait of Hormuz, concerns about the disruption of oil supply from the Middle East's core energy corridor have significantly eased. This marginal improvement in expectations directly triggered a stampede of long position closures in the energy market. West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell below $93, and Brent crude oil dropped to above $102. The geopolitical risk premium previously factored into asset prices was quickly stripped away, not only improving the forward cost expectations of the global supply chain but also providing foundational conditions for the redistribution of global macro liquidity.
Technology Stock Profit Recovery and AI Capital Expenditure Cycle
Against the backdrop of falling energy prices alleviating inflation concerns, the technology sector, represented by artificial intelligence, has shown strong upward resilience. The optimistic second-quarter revenue guidance and better-than-expected first-quarter profits released by Advanced Micro Devices confirmed the continued high demand for AI's underlying computing power. This improvement in micro-enterprise profits quickly transmitted to macro indices, with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH:US) rising by about 3% overall. Lori Calvasina, head of US equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, pointed out that AI trading and corporate earnings have formed an important buffer for the S&P 500 Index (SPX:US) earnings per share. If the trend of this profit center moving upward is confirmed, the capital expenditure cycle of North American tech giants is expected to continue to support orders for related hardware and semiconductor equipment suppliers in the coming quarters.
Liquidity Spillover in the Asian Time Zone and Technology Premium
The optimistic sentiment in the European and American markets has crossed time zones, triggering a stronger resonance in the Asia-Pacific market. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index recorded a significant increase of 6.45% after reopening post-holiday, with a cumulative increase of over 70% for the year. Among them, Samsung Electronics (005930:KS) surpassed a market value of $1 trillion, forming a dual engine with SK Hynix (000660:KS) to drive the index upward. Observations by Rushil Conner, head of Asian equity investments at Ostrum, indicate that the hardware demand from US hyperscale cloud providers is substantively translating into financial profits for the Asian semiconductor and technology hardware sectors. This cross-regional liquidity spillover from North American computing power demand to Asian capacity supply is reshaping the valuation model of emerging market equity assets.
Structural Inflows into Digital Assets and Evolution of Risk Aversion Logic
While traditional risk assets are strengthening, Bitcoin's (BTC:Crypto) pricing logic is showing a dual drive of risk appetite and structural demand. On one hand, the decline in oil prices has weakened concerns about aggressive monetary tightening, providing a more favorable macro environment for non-interest-bearing assets; on the other hand, the continuous allocation of institutional funds has formed a solid bottom support. Data shows that US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen a net inflow of over $5 billion in the past month. After breaking through the critical psychological threshold of $82,000, digital assets are gradually shedding their role as mere macro liquidity reservoirs, instead anchoring their price center within the normalized asset allocation framework of the traditional financial system. If the tail risk of the Middle East situation further converges, the implied volatility of such assets is expected to gradually align with traditional equity markets.
