- Although the US-Iran memorandum of understanding negotiations have advanced to a 95% framework consensus, they face significant resistance on key execution details, causing a marginal delay in the signing schedule of the final agreement.
- The core structure of the potential draft establishes a 60-day phased ceasefire across various fronts and requires the clearance of mines in the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days to fully restore navigation. However, the complex interplay of interests has made it difficult to completely eliminate pricing premiums in the short term.
- Iran insists on the immediate unfreezing of $12 billion in overseas restricted assets by the US as a primary condition, while President Trump has instructed negotiators to slow down the pace. Fox News reports that the US may set a final negotiation deadline of five to seven days.
Core Differences Behind the 95% Progress
According to senior anonymous officials familiar with the Doha negotiations, although the US and Iran have aligned on most of the macro framework, the remaining 5% of differences focus on the most sensitive interest exchange mechanisms. In the nuclear dispute area, the draft includes Iran's principled commitment not to possess nuclear weapons and plans to establish mechanisms to handle high-enriched uranium stockpiles during the two-month ceasefire period. However, this lacks substantial restrictions. The draft does not cover constraints on Iran's missile program nor explicitly require an immediate halt to uranium enrichment activities. This legal vacuum at the technical level has sparked intense debate within US policy circles. The Iranian Students' News Agency publicly refuted, stating that Tehran has not made any substantial nuclear concessions in the preliminary draft, leading to renewed pressure on the technical aspects of the negotiations.
Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and Financial Arrangements
As the most economically impactful clause of this round of negotiations, the comprehensive reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is directly linked to the release of Iran's frozen funds. The draft requires Iran to clear the strait's mines within 30 days, restoring this global oil transport artery to its pre-war free and safe navigation status, with the US lifting related offshore blockades. However, Tehran's execution path ties this to financial injections, demanding the US immediately settle and unfreeze a total of $12 billion in overseas restricted financial assets. Given that the Governor of the Central Bank of Iran is directly overseeing the process in Doha, the technical settlement path of these funds and compliance review of trust accounts have become focal points of the tug-of-war. Due to a lack of underlying trust, whether the funds will be unfrozen in one go or released in phases as the channel opens remains the most challenging interest blind spot for the Qatari mediation team to reconcile.
Ceasefire Scope and Multilateral Negotiation Variables
Another core obstacle to the agreement's implementation is the micro-definition of the ceasefire scope, which amplifies the regional proxy factors of geopolitical conflicts. Iran has clearly stated that Israel must cease all military strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon as a precondition for signing the agreement, attempting to alleviate its military pressure on the Shia geopolitical arc in the Middle East. Conversely, Israel remains steadfast, insisting that Hezbollah in Lebanon must completely disarm. This multidimensional political reality makes it difficult for Doha's negotiators to persuade their respective domestic decision-makers, even if progress is made in the wording of the text. As President Trump has cooled expectations through social media, instructing the delegation not to rush into an agreement, the market's previously overly optimistic expectations for an immediate de-escalation of geopolitical conflicts have begun to adjust in valuation.
