- The revaluation of spot market pricing is accelerating. Brent crude oil prices rose by 1.93 dollars to 107 dollars per barrel, with a weekly increase of 18%. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed to 96.61 dollars per barrel, marking a 15% rise, the second-highest weekly increase since the conflict began.
- The logistical blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has substantively continued, and Iran's seizing of ships underscores that the safety margin of the passage has not improved. Interception activities of air defense systems over Tehran have further elevated the risk premium of oil supply disruptions.
- Diplomatic mediation timelines have been indefinitely extended, with U.S. President Donald Trump refusing to set a timetable for a peace agreement. Analysts suggest that if there is no substantial breakthrough in bilateral talks by the end of April, the current ceasefire window may be priced as a phase of military reorganization, thereby supporting high levels in the crude oil forward curve.
Spot Premium and Derivatives Pricing Logic
This week's price movements in the crude oil derivatives market reflect extreme short-term supply concerns. Weekly increases of 18% for Brent and 15% for West Texas Intermediate indicate that traders are pricing in a long-term physical blockade of Middle East oil exports. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively in a state of blockade, forcing international energy traders to urgently procure alternative oil from non-Middle East regions at higher spot premiums. In the futures curve, the spread between nearby contracts and deferred contracts may widen further. This steep structure of spot premiums not only raises the rolling cost for short positions but also reflects concerns about the marginal utility of strategic petroleum reserve releases.
Freight Cost Re-evaluation Due to Channel Blockage
Key disruptions in cargo transportation, noted by Wealth Club strategists, are reshaping the global energy logistics cost model. With restricted access to the Strait of Hormuz, Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) are forced to remain for extended periods on the periphery of the Persian Gulf or alternatively route around the Cape of Good Hope. This directly leads to a structural contraction in the global effective maritime transport capacity. Escalating ship charter rates, war risk surcharges, and additional fuel consumption are non-linearly driving up the landing costs of commodities. If lockdown situations become normalized, the rise in costs due to logistical blockages will gradually transmit downstream along the industrial chain to chemical and refined oil markets, elevating the baseline cost of overall industrial production.
Ceasefire Window and Military Deployment Expectations
Pronouncements on geopolitical levels are intensifying market uncertainty expectations. U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he would not set a timetable for ending the conflict and suggested that the opposing side might rearm during the ceasefire. This statement reduces the market’s probability assessment of reaching a lasting peace agreement in the short term. Logic in Haitong Futures’ reports indicates that some market funds are beginning to view the indefinite ceasefire as a staging period for a new round of friction. This trading logic, based on preparedness for a resumption of war, results in a robust resilience in long oil positions even when bearish news emerges. Should there be substantial evidence of further military deployments or expanded air defense intercepts, oil prices have technical momentum to break through new highs for the year.
