On January 19, data from research firm Counterpoint Research showed that Apple's iPhone shipments in China's smartphone market increased by 28% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, reclaiming the top sales position during the holiday season. However, with AI features requiring higher memory configurations and the global supply of storage chips tightening, the market is starting to worry that rising hardware costs might quickly erode profit margins.
Q4 Rebound: iPhone Series Drives Shipments, Apple Returns to Lead
The report, citing Counterpoint, stated that the iPhone 17 series attracted a large number of consumers, leading to a strong recovery in Apple's shipments in the Chinese market in the fourth quarter. At the same time, domestic brands like Huawei saw a double-digit decline in shipments, while overall smartphone shipments in China decreased by about 1.6% year-on-year.
Yearly Pattern: Apple and Huawei Close in Market Share, "Air" Models Start Slow
For the year, Apple lagged behind Huawei by a small margin, ranking second in the Chinese market with both having a market share of approximately 17%; Apple's shipments in 2025 still recorded a growth of about 7.5%.
However, Counterpoint analysts noted that the newly released iPhone Air entered the Chinese market later than expected, and its sales were slower due to the trade-off between being lightweight and having feature-rich configurations.
AI Integration Raises Memory Threshold: Dual Pressure from Configuration and Price Increase
The market believes that Apple's return to the top is closely related to the integration of AI capabilities like Apple Intelligence. To run large models on devices more smoothly, future iPhones may require higher RAM capacity (such as transitioning from 8GB to 12GB/16GB), which could amplify dependency on key memory chips even as usage increases.
Supply Chain Variables: HBM Production Capacity, Memory Prices May Continue to Rise
Several industry studies attribute this round of tension to the rising demand for AI infrastructure: manufacturers are directing more capacity and resources towards high-end storage products required for AI chips, which is tightening supply in consumer electronics.
Counterpoint's "Memory Price Tracker" predicts that memory prices may still rise by 40%-50% in the first quarter of 2026, with a potential further increase of about 20% in the second quarter.
IDC also warns that the imbalance between supply and demand is driving up DRAM and NAND costs, describing it as an "unavoidable memory shortage crisis" for device manufacturers.
Impact Differentiation: Apple Has Stronger Bargaining Power, But Gross Margins Face "Cost Challenge"
The report indicates that Apple, with its advantages in the high-end market, funding, and scale, is theoretically in a better position to secure priority supply in negotiations with upstream suppliers. However, as some long-term low-cost supply agreements expire and procurement negotiations enter a new cycle, cost pressures may still challenge gross margins.
Meanwhile, a new round of consumer subsidies in China is believed to have somewhat alleviated cost pressures on manufacturers, but the industry as a whole still faces the reality of "more expensive storage, higher configurations, and thinner profits."
