- According to the latest statistics from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) and shipping data agency Kpler, two Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) and one Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) carrier have left the Strait of Hormuz with their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders turned off, heading at full speed towards key Asian buyers such as China and India.
- Tracking data shows that these offline vessels are carrying millions of barrels of crude oil, naphtha, and key clean energy resources. Although a few tankers have departed this month, the overall crude oil and natural gas transport capacity in the Gulf region remains constrained by geopolitical factors, showing a relatively sluggish state.
- Historical data indicates that the daily vessel traffic through the strait has significantly decreased from the previous normal level of over a hundred ships. Tens of thousands of crew members and hundreds of energy cargo ships are currently stranded in the Persian Gulf, with the market assessing the marginal cost changes of reconstructing transport routes.
Restricted Core Hub Traffic Triggers Offline Navigation
According to shipping tracking agencies, earlier this week, the Strait of Hormuz, a global critical oil chokepoint, recorded abnormal navigation behavior again. Two supertankers and one LNG ship chose to pass through the highly politically sensitive strait with their onboard transponders turned off in a safety defense mode. Market analysts point out that due to geopolitical developments in the region leading to increased security premiums, some shipowners prefer to adopt covert navigation strategies to avoid potential risks. Data shows that before the current escalation, the daily vessel traffic in the area typically ranged from 125 to 140 ships. However, the overall throughput efficiency is now being reassessed, with about 20,000 crew members stranded on hundreds of various cargo ships within the Persian Gulf, indicating that the underlying logistics system of the supply chain is under significant pressure.
Key Transport Capacity for Major Asian Refineries En Route
Among the ships that have departed offline, a significant portion of the energy assets are destined for China. The supertanker Eagle Veracruz, managed by AET Tankers and carrying about 2 million barrels of Saudi crude oil, is currently en route at full speed to Quanzhou Port in Fujian Province, China, expected to arrive at Sinochem's refinery facilities on June 16. Additionally, the oil tanker Hualinwan, operated by China COSCO Shipping Corporation (601919:SH) and flying the Chinese flag, left the strait on Wednesday. It is carrying Kuwaiti naphtha and is expected to arrive at Huizhou Port in Guangdong on June 12. Another key Asian buyer, India, is also receiving related transport capacity. The supertanker Nissos Keros, carrying UAE Das crude oil and chartered by Vitol, is expected to arrive at Hindustan Petroleum Corporation's (HINDPETRO:IN) refinery base in Visakhapatnam on June 3.
Reemergence of LNG Transport Routes Reflects Resilient Supply and Demand
In addition to heavy crude assets, the transport of high-value clean energy is also being discreetly maneuvered. The LNG carrier Umm Al Ashtan, managed by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), experienced a period of technical invisibility in the ship tracking system. The ship previously sailed empty to the UAE offshore on May 1 and turned off its transponder signal until reappearing on May 27 after loading at Das Island. It is currently located offshore Oman and continues to sail eastward, with its destination being an unloading terminal in India. Industry experts believe that despite the complex transport environment, the rigid energy demand from the Middle East to Asia still forces carriers to maintain their scheduled commitments through refined operations.
Geopolitical Risk Premium and Cross-Asset Repricing Variables
Global energy commodities and macro markets are closely monitoring the traffic disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. If this critical waterway continues to record limited transport volumes or if covert navigation becomes normalized, the risk premium for international crude oil and natural gas benchmark prices may face systemic reevaluation. If maritime insurance rates continue to rise, it will not only increase the landed cost of refined products in the future but may also exert potential pressure on the monetary policies of major Asian importing countries through trade surplus and inflation transmission paths. If core inflation rebounds due to supply chain disruptions, the pricing anchors of central banks in major economies may be re-anchored. Current management entities such as Sinochem, Vitol, and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company remain relatively low-key and have not made immediate comments on the offline details.
