Gold is prepared for a substantial increase, its extent second only to cryptocurrencies, but it lacks enduring strength. At the end of last week, we observed the technical completion of a quick bullish pattern.
Sometimes, gold does not experience much fluctuation for weeks, but at certain times, it undergoes a strong multi-day trend, with the volatility becoming almost one-sided, as we have seen this time.
After breaking through the resistance of the downward trend, the price of gold quickly rose, increasing by nearly 2% last Friday and by another 1.5% on Monday, with a rise of over 0.5% since the opening on Tuesday. It is currently at $2126, almost at its all-time high. The highest price appeared at the opening on Tuesday, happening off-market and setting a historical record of 3.5%.
After a strong rebound to above $2088 on Monday, it rewrote the closing high, and now the direction of gold's volatility is bouncing back to the $2255 area, which is the 161.8% level of October-December's peak. This price experienced a typical 61.8% pullback during the initial rebound at the beginning of the year.
One warning sign is the RSI being overbought. The Relative Strength Index is at 77.7, its highest level since March 2022, and it has remained at this level for the 14 months since then.
The RSI reached an even higher level from July to August 2020, and we observe many similarities with the current situation. Back then, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was overbought, just as it is now, coinciding with its entry into the historical high area above $1800. Technically, it was not an all-time high, as it is now, but it exceeded the stable trading range (which was $1800 at that time, and is $2050 now), and that is the key information.
