Market Review
On Monday, the minutes from the Federal Reserve's May meeting indicated that several officials suggested further tightening of policies if necessary. The long-term neutral interest rate could be higher than previously expected. Officials discussed the necessity of maintaining rates unchanged for an extended period, especially if the labor market weakens.
Some officials noted the risk of excessively loose financial conditions. Following the release of the minutes, traders reduced their bets on multiple rate cuts by the Fed this year. The hawkish nature of the minutes led to a rebound in the dollar index to a weekly high, approaching the 105 mark, and it eventually closed at 104.94.
Today's Focus
Dollar Index: The index is nearing the 105 mark, with European and American PMI data to be released today. Monitor the price reaction in this area. If the short-term trend continues upward, watch for a breakthrough of 105.1 for potential long positions. If it fails to move upward effectively, focus on the situation after breaking below 104.7 and subsequent consolidation.
EUR/USD: Prices are near the 1.08 level; avoid short positions if it fails to break below this level effectively. For short-term trading, aggressive traders can rely on support at the 1.08 level for short-term long positions, while more conservative traders should wait for the price reaction around 1.08 before following the prevailing trend.
GBP/USD: Prices continue to hover around the 1.27 level, with a rise and fall observed yesterday. Focus on the 1.268-1.273 range for a breakthrough. A drop below 1.268 will initiate a pullback, while a rise above 1.273 will target resistance at the 1.28 level. Short-term trades should primarily follow the market.
USD/JPY: Prices have broken above the previous high of 156.8, and the short-term trend remains bullish. The resistance at 157.5-158 remains unchanged. As prices approach this resistance area, it's advisable to take partial profits on previous long positions.
AUD/USD: Yesterday's price fell below the 0.664 support level. In the short term, this area may see a switch between bearish and bullish sentiments. Watch for any pullbacks to this resistance area for selling opportunities. Aggressive traders can short directly at 0.664, while conservative traders should wait for a confirmation around 0.667 before shorting.
USD/CAD: A bottoming pattern has emerged, with resistance now in the previous 1.376 area. During the current consolidation upward, opportunities for short-term longs arise if prices pull back to the 1.366 level.
Crude Oil: Oil prices continue their downward trend. In the short term, watch for support around the previous low of 76.6. A break below this level will initiate a significant downward move. Short-term support is at 75, with strong support around 72. Opportunities for short positions arise on breaks followed by pullbacks.
Gold: Prices have reached the short-term support area of 2370. Monitor this area closely. A break below this could lead to continued short positions with support at 2330. If it fails to break below effectively, watch for potential rebounds above 2400 after confirming the current support.
S&P Index: After retracing to the 5290 level, the price continues to rise. In the short term, monitor the previous high. Further breakouts can lead to continued long positions after pullbacks. Unless a significant downward trend reversal occurs, the strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged.
Bitcoin: After fluctuating around the 72000 area, the price has begun to fall. In the short term, watch the support area around 67000. Aggressive traders can consider short positions at the 70700 high, while conservative traders should wait for the price to fall to the support level before deciding on their next move.
