On Gold:
Last week, the Federal Reserve released the Monetary Policy Report for the first half of 2024, outlining its assessment of the US economy. It emphasized the crucial importance of policy independence in the context of slowing inflation. The report also stated that the Fed would not easily adjust the interest rate range until it has enough confidence in returning to the 2% inflation target.
However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's public remarks last week were relatively dovish, indicating that significant progress had already been made in bringing inflation back to the policy target. Analysts believe there is a strong tendency for the Fed to initiate a mild easing cycle, with the labor market returning to better balance and the economy at risk of slipping into recession.
Technical Analysis: Gold saw a significant drop yesterday (July 8), hitting a low of $2,350, returning to the non-farm payroll low, and failing to successfully breach the $2,400 mark. In the short term, resistance is observed at $2,366. If it breaks through, it will aim for the previous high; support is noted around the $2,350 level.
On Crude Oil:
The Gulf of Mexico has entered hurricane season. According to prior meteorological forecasts, the number and scale of hurricanes in the US this year could be more severe than in past years.
The US Hurricane Center reported that Hurricane Beryl, arriving in Texas on Sunday (July 7), posed lethal dangers with its storm surges and high winds, significantly impacting refineries in the region. The deputy governor of Texas stated that 121 counties in the state had entered a disaster state, urging preparations for personal and property safety.
Hurricanes pose challenges to offshore oil and gas production in the US and more concerningly, they may damage refining infrastructure.
Technical Analysis: Crude oil showed weakness yesterday, falling to the $82 range without seeing a significant rise. In the short term, if $82 is breached, it may accelerate downward, deeply correcting the gains since June.
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