At 4 a.m. Beijing time on April 3, U.S. President Trump officially announced the implementation of a "reciprocal tariff" plan. This decision surprised the market and triggered sharp fluctuations in global risk assets. The intensity of the U.S. tariffs far exceeded the mild expectations previously held by the market. The announcement of the tariff measures led to an instant drop in U.S. stock futures and commodity prices such as copper, with a decline approaching 5%. Crude oil prices also experienced significant volatility, retracting more than $2 in a short period, with notable fluctuations. Previously, oil prices had rebounded driven by geopolitical factors, but the implementation of the tariff policy impacted market confidence, increasing uncertainty about oil demand.
Trump's tariff policy undoubtedly raises the risk of an economic slowdown, further pressuring the oil market's demand decline. Investors reassessed market prospects, causing oil prices to give back some of the gains driven by geopolitical factors on Monday. Analysts pointed out that U.S. tariff increases could heighten the risk of global economic stagflation, directly affecting oil price trends, with investors' risk appetite sharply declining.
Evening data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed a substantial increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, reaching 440 million barrels, with an increase of 6.165 million barrels, far exceeding market expectations. This marks the entry of the U.S. into a full-scale stock accumulation phase in the oil market, with inventory levels hitting a new high in nearly a year. As market concerns about weak demand intensify, the upward momentum for oil prices is noticeably limited.
Meanwhile, the upcoming OPEC+ meeting has also become a focal point for the market, as it is expected that the organization will continue to assess the latest changes in the global oil market and decide on its production management strategy. Geopolitical uncertainties persist and could further impact the market, increasing the risk of oil price volatility.
In summary, the tariff policy announced by Trump has greatly increased the probability of oil prices fluctuating downward, with the market likely to face higher volatility in the short term. Investors should be alert to market risks and adopt effective risk control measures to avoid excessive involvement in high-risk trades. In this volatile market environment, oil prices may remain highly fluctuating, and investors need to closely monitor subsequent economic data and international political developments.
